Department of Pediatrics, Okayama University Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences, 2-5-1 Shikata, Okayama, 700-8558, Japan.
Department of Pediatrics, Okayama University Hospital, 2-5-1 Shikata, Okayama, 700-8558, Japan.
BMC Public Health. 2022 Aug 9;22(1):1517. doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13899-y.
The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease burden is significant, especially in infants and children with an underlying disease. Prophylaxis with palivizumab is recommended for these high-risk groups. Early recognition of a RSV epidemic is important for timely administration of palivizumab. We herein aimed to assess the correlation between national surveillance and Google Trends data pertaining to RSV infections in Japan.
The present, retrospective survey was performed between January 1, 2018 and November 14, 2021 and evaluated the correlation between national surveillance data and Google Trends data. Joinpoint regression was used to identify the points at which changes in trends occurred.
A strong correlation was observed every study year (2018 [r = 0.87, p < 0.01], 2019 [r = 0.83, p < 0.01], 2020 [r = 0.83, p < 0.01], and 2021 [r = 0.96, p < 0.01]). The change-points in the Google Trends data indicating the start of the RSV epidemic were observed earlier than by sentinel surveillance in 2018 and 2021 and simultaneously with sentinel surveillance in 2019. No epidemic surge was observed in either the Google Trends or the surveillance data from 2020.
Our data suggested that Google Trends has the potential to enable the early identification of RSV epidemics. In countries without a national surveillance system, Google Trends may serve as an alternative early warning system.
呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）疾病负担严重，尤其是在患有基础疾病的婴儿和儿童中。对于这些高危人群，推荐使用帕利珠单抗进行预防。及早识别 RSV 流行对于及时给予帕利珠单抗治疗非常重要。本研究旨在评估日本国家监测数据与 Google Trends 数据在 RSV 感染方面的相关性。
本回顾性研究于 2018 年 1 月 1 日至 2021 年 11 月 14 日进行，评估了国家监测数据与 Google Trends 数据之间的相关性。采用 Joinpoint 回归确定趋势变化的时间点。
每年的研究均观察到较强的相关性（2018 年 [r=0.87，p<0.01]、2019 年 [r=0.83，p<0.01]、2020 年 [r=0.83，p<0.01] 和 2021 年 [r=0.96，p<0.01]）。Google Trends 数据中提示 RSV 流行开始的变化点早于 2018 年和 2021 年的哨点监测，与 2019 年的哨点监测同时出现。在 2020 年，无论是 Google Trends 数据还是监测数据均未观察到流行高峰。
我们的数据表明，Google Trends 具有早期识别 RSV 流行的潜力。在没有国家监测系统的国家，Google Trends 可能成为替代的早期预警系统。
