School of Economics and Trade, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou, 510006, China.
Department of Accounting and Finance, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YW, UK.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Feb;28(5):5168-5179. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-10785-1. Epub 2020 Sep 21.
The international community has generally recognized the key role of developing countries' cities in reducing carbon emissions, an elemental way to mitigate climate change. However, few have empirically analyzed the impact of market-based instruments such as emission trading system on urban carbon emissions in developing economies. This paper examines the effect of China's pilot carbon trading markets, the first emission trading system in developing economies, on cities' carbon intensity. We also explore the mechanism by which the emission trading system achieves its influence. The PSM-DID method is used to analyze the panel data including China's 273 prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2016. The results illustrate that the emission trading system significantly decreased pilot cities' carbon intensity and this effect endured; as time progressed, the reduction effect was increasing. Through mediating effect analysis, we find that the emission trading system reduced the carbon intensity via increasing the proportion of tertiary industry output value in GDP and decreasing the energy intensity. Overall, the empirical results suggest that the Chinese government should drive the establishment and improvement of a national carbon market, proactively adjust industry structure, and consider the possible influence caused by the potential energy rebound effect.
国际社会普遍认识到发展中国家城市在减少碳排放方面的关键作用，这是缓解气候变化的基本途径。然而，很少有实证分析市场工具，如排放交易系统对发展中经济体城市碳排放的影响。本文考察了中国试点碳交易市场（发展中经济体的首个排放交易系统）对城市碳强度的影响。我们还探讨了排放交易系统实现其影响的机制。采用 PSM-DID 方法分析了 2010 年至 2016 年中国 273 个地级市的面板数据。结果表明，排放交易系统显著降低了试点城市的碳强度，而且这种影响持续存在；随着时间的推移，减排效果不断增强。通过中介效应分析，我们发现排放交易系统通过提高第三产业增加值占 GDP 的比重和降低能源强度来降低碳强度。总体而言，实证结果表明，中国政府应推动建立和完善全国碳市场，主动调整产业结构，并考虑潜在能源回弹效应可能带来的影响。
