Hodbod Alexander, Hommes Cars, Huber Stefanie J, Salle Isabelle
European Central Bank (ECB/SSM), Germany.
Amsterdam School of Economics, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Eur Econ Rev. 2021 Nov;140:103953. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103953. Epub 2021 Oct 29.
Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending. The elongated and profound experience of the COVID-19 crisis may durably affect consumer preferences. We conducted a representative consumer survey in five European countries in summer 2020, after the release of the first wave's lockdown restrictions, and document the underlying reasons for households' reduction in consumption in five key sectors: tourism, hospitality, services, retail, and public transports. We identify a large confidence shock in the Southern European countries and a shift in consumer preferences in the Northern European countries, particularly among high-income earners. We conclude that the COVID-19 experience has altered consumer behavior and that long-term sectoral consumption shifts may occur.
未来的经济发展取决于消费者支出的行为。一个关键问题是，一旦社会 distancing 限制解除，私人支出是否会复苏，或者 COVID - 19 危机是否会对消费者信心、偏好以及由此产生的支出产生持续影响。COVID - 19 危机漫长而深刻的经历可能会持久地影响消费者偏好。2020年夏天，在第一波封锁限制解除后，我们在五个欧洲国家进行了一项具有代表性的消费者调查，并记录了家庭在旅游、酒店、服务、零售和公共交通这五个关键部门消费减少的根本原因。我们发现南欧国家存在巨大的信心冲击，而北欧国家，尤其是高收入者中，消费者偏好发生了转变。我们得出结论，COVID - 19 的经历改变了消费者行为，并且可能会出现长期的部门消费转移。 注：原文中“social distancing”直译为“社交距离”，在疫情背景下意译为“保持社交距离”更合适，但题目要求不添加解释，所以保留原文表述。
