European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies, London, UK.
LSE Health, Department of Health Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Eur J Public Health. 2023 Apr 1;33(2):228-234. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckad023.
The Covid-19 pandemic is an economic and a health crisis. Households reduced consumption expenditures as large-scale physical distancing measures, lower disposable incomes and fear of infection when engaging in many types of economic activity took hold. This, in turn, reduced domestic tax revenues at a time when governments were facing increased financial pressures to strengthen and sustain welfare states.
We developed a simulation model, the Covid-19 Taxination Simulator, to estimate potential economic gains and tax revenues attributable to vaccine rollouts. We apply the model to 12 European Union countries which had low vaccination rates at the beginning of 2022.
The highest growth in aggregate personal consumption expenditure attributable to Covid-19 vaccines administered as of January 2022 is in Greece (10.8%), Slovenia (8.6%) and Czechia (8.6%), while the lowest is in Bulgaria (2.2%) and Slovakia (2.1%). If countries had vaccinated 85% of their adult population, the largest gains in consumption tax revenues would be expected in Romania (830 million Euros) and Poland (738 million Euros). Consumption tax revenues generated by meeting the 85% of the adult population target would, on their own, be large enough to fully cover the costs of expanding the vaccine rollout itself in Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary and Greece.
Covid-19 vaccination rollouts not only save lives and relieve pressures on health systems, they also support economic growth and generate additional tax revenues. These revenues can partially offset the costs of vaccines programmes themselves.
Covid-19 大流行是一场经济和健康危机。随着大规模保持社交距离措施、可支配收入下降以及在从事许多类型的经济活动时担心感染的情况的出现，家庭减少了消费支出。这反过来又减少了国内税收，而此时政府面临着增加财政压力以加强和维持福利国家的局面。
我们开发了一个模拟模型，即 Covid-19 税收模拟器，以估计疫苗接种带来的潜在经济收益和税收。我们将该模型应用于 2022 年初疫苗接种率较低的 12 个欧盟国家。
截至 2022 年 1 月，接种的 Covid-19 疫苗导致个人消费支出总额增长最大的是希腊（10.8%）、斯洛文尼亚（8.6%）和捷克（8.6%），而保加利亚（2.2%）和斯洛伐克（2.1%）则最低。如果各国为 85%的成年人口接种疫苗，预计罗马尼亚（8.3 亿欧元）和波兰（7.38 亿欧元）的消费税收将有最大增长。如果达到 85%的成年人口目标，消费税收本身就足以完全覆盖爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、捷克、匈牙利和希腊扩大疫苗接种本身的成本。
Covid-19 疫苗接种不仅挽救生命，缓解卫生系统压力，还支持经济增长并产生额外税收。这些收入可以部分抵消疫苗接种计划本身的成本。
