Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.
Hanley Sustainability Institute, University of Dayton, Dayton, OH, USA.
Nat Commun. 2022 Aug 16;13(1):4304. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1.
Scientifically rigorous guidance to policy makers on mitigation options for meeting the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal requires an evaluation of long-term global-warming implications of greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Here we employ a uniform and transparent methodology to evaluate Paris Agreement compatibility of influential institutional emission scenarios from the grey literature, including those from Shell, BP, and the International Energy Agency. We compare a selection of these scenarios analysed with this methodology to the Integrated Assessment Model scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We harmonize emissions to a consistent base-year and account for all greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emissions, ensuring a self-consistent comparison of climate variables. An evaluation of peak and end-of-century temperatures is made, with both being relevant to the Paris Agreement goal. Of the scenarios assessed, we find that only the IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario is aligned with the criteria for Paris Agreement consistency employed here. We investigate root causes for misalignment with these criteria based on the underlying energy system transformation.
科学严谨的指导方针，为决策者提供了实现《巴黎协定》长期温度目标的缓解选择，需要评估温室气体排放途径对长期全球变暖的影响。在这里，我们采用统一透明的方法，评估来自灰色文献的有影响力的机构排放情景，包括壳牌、英国石油公司和国际能源署的情景，以评估其与《巴黎协定》的兼容性。我们将通过这种方法分析的这些情景中的一些与政府间气候变化专门委员会评估的综合评估模型情景进行比较。我们将排放调整到一个一致的基准年，并考虑所有温室气体和气溶胶前体排放，以确保气候变量的一致性比较。我们对峰值和本世纪末的温度进行了评估，这两者都与《巴黎协定》的目标有关。在所评估的情景中，我们发现只有国际能源署的《2050 年净零排放》情景符合我们在这里采用的《巴黎协定》一致性标准。我们根据潜在的能源系统转型，调查了与这些标准不相符的根本原因。
