Faculty of Medical Sciences, Department of Biostatistics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Medicine, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran.
PLoS One. 2022 Aug 17;17(8):e0272908. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272908. eCollection 2022.
Marriage is one of the most important phenomena in human life. The survival of the marriage and the impact of various competing factors on the survival is of high importance. This study aimed at utilizing competing risks survival analysis to investigate the marriage survival of new couples in Tabriz.
In this longitudinal study, a number of 386 individuals who were married and divorced from 1991 to 2017, were selected by random sampling. The registered information was attained from the general registry office of Tabriz. Data analysis was carried out using the Lunn-McNeil procedure and the results were presented using an adjusted hazard ratio (AHR).
The average age of marriage was about 23.9 (SD 6.6) years. The results of multivariate Lunn-McNeil models indicated that for the competing cause of having a relationship with another person (AHRs range: 1.12 to 2.03), the traditional mode of being familiar (AHRs range: 1.55 to 3.39), family weak role in choosing a wife/spouse (AHRs range: 0.25 to 3.25) and the role of moral-religious commitment (AHRs range: 0.37 to 0.47), along with other causes severed the risk of marriage survival reduction.
According to the results of this study in assessing competing risks, we conclude that the decline in marriage survival is a multifactorial phenomenon. Examining the survival of marriage in order to better understand all the dimensions and factors affecting this phenomenon and providing information to counselors and officials can play an important role in increasing marriage survival.
婚姻是人类生活中最重要的现象之一。婚姻的存续以及各种竞争因素对其存续的影响至关重要。本研究旨在利用竞争风险生存分析来研究大不里士新婚夫妇的婚姻存续情况。
在这项纵向研究中，通过随机抽样选择了 1991 年至 2017 年期间离婚的 386 对新婚夫妇。登记信息来自大不里士的总登记处。使用 Lunn-McNeil 程序进行数据分析，并使用调整后的危险比 (AHR) 呈现结果。
平均结婚年龄约为 23.9 岁（标准差 6.6）。多变量 Lunn-McNeil 模型的结果表明，对于与他人建立关系的竞争原因（AHRs 范围：1.12 至 2.03）、传统的熟人模式（AHRs 范围：1.55 至 3.39）、家庭在选择妻子/配偶方面的弱作用（AHRs 范围：0.25 至 3.25）和道德宗教承诺的作用（AHRs 范围：0.37 至 0.47），以及其他原因都会降低婚姻存续的风险。
根据本研究中对竞争风险的评估结果，我们得出结论，婚姻存续率的下降是一个多因素现象。为了更好地理解影响这一现象的所有维度和因素，对婚姻存续进行评估，并为顾问和官员提供信息，可以在提高婚姻存续率方面发挥重要作用。
