State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
College of Life Sciences, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, 330022, China.
BMC Ecol Evol. 2022 Aug 22;22(1):102. doi: 10.1186/s12862-022-02056-z.
During the past three decades, sustained population decline or disappearance of cycles in small rodents have been observed. Both anthropogenic disturbance and climate warming are likely to be potential drivers of population decline, but quantitative analysis on their distinct effects is still lacking.
Using time series monitoring of 115 populations (80 populations from 18 known rodent species, 35 mixed populations from unknown species) from 1980 in China (spanning 20-33 yrs), we analyzed association of human disturbances and climate warming with population dynamics of these rodent species. We found 54 of 115 populations showed a decreasing trend since 1980, and 16 of 115 showed an increasing trend. Human disturbances and climate warming showed significant positive associations with the population declines of most rodent species, and the population declines were more pronounced in habitats with more intensified human disturbance such as cities and farmlands or in high-latitude regions which experienced more increase of temperature.
Our results indicate that the large-scale sustained population decline of small mammals in various ecosystems driven by the rapid increase of both climate warming and human disturbance is likely a signal of ecosystem dysfunction or transition. There is an urgent need to assess the risks of accelerated climate warming and human disturbance imposes on our ecosystems.
在过去的三十年中，已经观察到小型啮齿动物的种群持续减少或周期消失。人为干扰和气候变暖都可能是种群减少的潜在驱动因素，但对它们的不同影响的定量分析仍然缺乏。
利用 1980 年以来中国 115 个种群（18 种已知啮齿动物 80 个种群，未知物种 35 个混合种群）的时间序列监测（跨度为 20-33 年），我们分析了人为干扰和气候变暖与这些啮齿动物种群动态的关系。我们发现，自 1980 年以来，115 个种群中有 54 个种群呈下降趋势，115 个种群中有 16 个种群呈上升趋势。人类干扰和气候变暖与大多数啮齿动物种群的数量下降呈显著正相关，在城市、农田等人为干扰加剧的栖息地或经历更多升温的高纬度地区，种群下降更为明显。
我们的结果表明，由气候变暖快速增加和人类干扰驱动的各种生态系统中小哺乳动物的大规模持续种群减少，很可能是生态系统功能障碍或转变的信号。迫切需要评估加速的气候变暖和人类干扰对我们生态系统的风险。
