Key Laboratory of Applied Ecology of Loess Plateau, Shaanxi Province, Yan'an University, Yan'an, 716000, Shaanxi, China.
Research and Development Centre of Ecological and Sustainable Application of Microbial Industry of the Loess Plateau in Shaanxi Province, Yan'an University, Yan'an, 716000, Shaanxi, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 13;14(1):18821. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-69889-0.
The Chinese government has introduced a carbon neutral policy to cope with the rapid changes in the global climate. It is not clear what impact this policy will have on wildlife. Therefore, this study analyzed the suitable habitat distribution of China's unique leopard subspecies in northern Shaanxi, and simulated the potential suitable habitat distribution under different carbon emission scenarios at two time points of future carbon peak and carbon neutralization. We found that in the future SSPs 126 scenario, the suitable habitat area and the number of suitable habitat patches of North China leopard will continue to increase. With the increase of carbon emissions, it is expected that the suitable habitat of North China leopard will continue to be fragmented and shifted. When the annual average temperature is lower than 8 °C, the precipitation seasonality is 80-90 mm and the precipitation of the warmest quarter is greater than 260 mm, the probability of occurrence of North China leopard is higher. The increase in carbon emissions will lead to the reduction, migration, and fragmentation of the suitable habitat distribution of the North China leopard. Carbon neutrality policies can protect suitable wild habitats. In the future, the impact of carbon neutrality policies on future wildlife habitat protection should be carried out in depth to effectively promote the construction of wildlife protection projects.
中国政府提出了碳中和政策以应对全球气候的快速变化。目前尚不清楚该政策将对野生动物产生何种影响。因此，本研究分析了中国北方陕西北部的特有豹亚种的适宜栖息地分布，并在未来碳峰值和碳中和两个时间点的不同碳排放情景下模拟了潜在的适宜栖息地分布。我们发现，在未来的 SSPs126 情景下，华北豹的适宜栖息地面积和适宜栖息地斑块数量将继续增加。随着碳排放的增加，预计华北豹的适宜栖息地将继续碎片化和转移。当年平均气温低于 8°C、降水季节性为 80-90mm 和最暖季度的降水量大于 260mm 时，华北豹的出现概率更高。碳排放的增加将导致华北豹适宜栖息地分布的减少、迁移和碎片化。碳中和政策可以保护适宜的野生栖息地。未来，应深入研究碳中和政策对未来野生动物栖息地保护的影响，以有效推动野生动物保护项目的建设。
