State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Urban Ambient Air Particulate Matter Pollution Prevention and Control, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300350, China; CMA-NKU Cooperative Laboratory for Atmospheric Environment-Health Research, Tianjin, 300350, China.
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Urban Ambient Air Particulate Matter Pollution Prevention and Control, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300350, China.
Environ Pollut. 2022 Nov 1;312:120004. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2022.120004. Epub 2022 Aug 19.
This study aims at exploring size distribution, meteorological influence and uncertainty for source-specific risks of atmospheric particulate matter (PM), which can improve risk-mitigation strategies for health protection. Heavy metals (HMs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in PM and PM were detected in a Chinese megacity during 2011-2021. A new method named as PMFBMR, which combines the Positive Matrix Factorization, Bootstrapping, Mote Carlo and Risk assessment model, was developed to estimate uncertainty of source-specific risks. It was found that PAH risks concentrated in fine PM, while HMs showed high risks in both fine and coarse PMs. For PM, HQ (non-cancer risk hazard quotient) of gasoline combustion (GC), diesel and heavy oil combustion (DC), coal combustion (CC), industrial source (IS), resuspended dust (RD) and secondary and transport PM (ST) were 0.6, 1.4, 0.9, 1.6, 0.3, and 0.3. ILCR (lifetime cancer risk) of sources were IS (9.2E-05) > DC (2.6E-05) = CC (2.6E-05) > RD (2.2E-05) > GC (1.7E-05) > ST (6.4E-06). PM from GC, DC, CC and IS caused higher risks than coarse PM, while coarse PM from RD caused higher risks. Source-specific risks were influenced not only by emissions, but also by meteorological condition and dominant toxic components. Risks of GC and DC were usually high during stable weather. Some high risks of CC, IS and RD occurred at strong WS due to transport or wind-blown resuspension. GC and DC risks (influenced by both PAHs and HMs) showed strong relationship with T, while IS and RD risks (dominated by HMs) showed weak link with meteorological conditions. For uncertainty of source-specific risks, HQ and ILCR were sensitive for different variables, because they were dominated by components with different uncertainties. When using source-specific risks for risk-mitigation strategies, the focused toxic components, used toxic values, PM sizes and uncertainty are necessary to be considered.
本研究旨在探讨大气颗粒物（PM）源特定风险的粒径分布、气象影响和不确定性，以改善健康保护的风险缓解策略。2011 年至 2021 年期间，在中国一座特大城市中检测到 PM 和 PM 中的重金属（HMs）和多环芳烃（PAHs）。开发了一种名为 PMFBMR 的新方法，该方法结合了正矩阵因子分解、引导、蒙特卡罗和风险评估模型，用于估计源特定风险的不确定性。研究发现，PAH 风险集中在细颗粒物中，而 HMs 在细颗粒物和粗颗粒物中均存在高风险。对于 PM，汽油燃烧（GC）、柴油和重油燃烧（DC）、煤炭燃烧（CC）、工业源（IS）、再悬浮尘（RD）和二次及传输 PM（ST）的 HQ（非致癌风险商数）分别为 0.6、1.4、0.9、1.6、0.3 和 0.3。来源的 ILCR（终生癌症风险）分别为 IS（9.2E-05）>DC（2.6E-05）=CC（2.6E-05）>RD（2.2E-05）>GC（1.7E-05）>ST（6.4E-06）。GC、DC、CC 和 IS 产生的 PM 比粗颗粒物造成的风险更高，而 RD 产生的粗颗粒物造成的风险更高。源特定风险不仅受排放影响，还受气象条件和主要有毒成分的影响。在稳定天气下，GC 和 DC 的风险通常较高。由于传输或风吹再悬浮，在强 WS 时，CC、IS 和 RD 会出现一些高风险。GC 和 DC 风险（受 PAHs 和 HMs 共同影响）与 T 呈强相关，而 IS 和 RD 风险（受 HMs 主导）与气象条件的相关性较弱。对于源特定风险的不确定性，HQ 和 ILCR 对不同变量敏感，因为它们主要由不确定性不同的成分主导。在使用源特定风险制定风险缓解策略时，有必要考虑重点有毒成分、所用毒性值、PM 粒径和不确定性。
