美国人低估了民众对气候政策的支持率,近一半人都生活在这种错误的社会现实中。
Americans experience a false social reality by underestimating popular climate policy support by nearly half.
机构信息
Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, 02467, USA.
Media School, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, 47405, USA.
出版信息
Nat Commun. 2022 Aug 23;13(1):4779. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-32412-y.
Pluralistic ignorance-a shared misperception of how others think or behave-poses a challenge to collective action on problems like climate change. Using a representative sample of Americans (N = 6119), we examine whether Americans accurately perceive national concern about climate change and support for mitigating policies. We find a form of pluralistic ignorance that we describe as a false social reality: a near universal perception of public opinion that is the opposite of true public sentiment. Specifically, 80-90% of Americans underestimate the prevalence of support for major climate change mitigation policies and climate concern. While 66-80% Americans support these policies, Americans estimate the prevalence to only be between 37-43% on average. Thus, supporters of climate policies outnumber opponents two to one, while Americans falsely perceive nearly the opposite to be true. Further, Americans in every state and every assessed demographic underestimate support across all polices tested. Preliminary evidence suggests three sources of these misperceptions: (i) consistent with a false consensus effect, respondents who support these policies less (conservatives) underestimate support by a greater degree; controlling for one's own personal politics, (ii) exposure to more conservative local norms and (iii) consuming conservative news correspond to greater misperceptions.
多元无知——即对他人的想法或行为的一种共同误解——给气候变化等问题的集体行动带来了挑战。本研究使用了具有代表性的美国样本(N=6119),检验了美国人对气候变化的关注度和对缓解政策的支持度是否准确。我们发现了一种多元无知的形式,我们称之为虚假的社会现实:一种普遍存在的对公众舆论的看法,与真实的公众情绪截然相反。具体来说,80-90%的美国人低估了对主要气候变化缓解政策和对气候问题关注的支持率。尽管 66-80%的美国人支持这些政策,但美国人的估计平均值仅为 37-43%。因此,支持气候政策的人是反对者的两倍,但美国人错误地认为几乎相反的情况才是真实的。此外,在每个州和每个评估的人口统计学中,美国人都低估了所有测试政策的支持率。初步证据表明,这些误解有三个来源:(i)与虚假共识效应一致,支持这些政策的人(保守派)对支持率的低估程度更大;控制一个人的个人政治立场,(ii)接触更多的保守派地方规范和(iii)消费保守派新闻与更大的误解有关。