Origin of Ciguateric Fish: Quantitative Modelling of the Flow of Ciguatoxin through a Marine Food Chain.

To begin to understand the impact of food chain dynamics on ciguatera risk, we used published data to model the transfer of ciguatoxins across four trophic levels of a marine food chain in Platypus Bay, Australia. The data to support this first attempt to conceptualize the scale of each trophic transfer step was limited, resulting in broad estimates. The hypothetical scenario we explored generated a low-toxicity 10 kg Spanish mackerel () with a flesh concentration of 0.1 µg/kg of Pacific-ciguatoxin-1 (P-CTX-1, also known as CTX1B) from 19.5-78.1 µg of P-CTX-1 equivalents (eq.) that enter the marine food chain from a population of 12-49 million benthic dinoflagellates ( sp.) producing 1.6 × 10 g/cell of the P-CTX-1 precursor, P-CTX-4B. This number of could be epiphytic on 22-88 kg of the benthic macroalgae () that carpets the bottom of much of Platypus Bay, with the toxin transferred to an estimated 40,000-160,000 alpheid shrimps in the second trophic level. This large number of shrimps appears unrealistic, but toxic shrimps would likely be consumed by a school of small, blotched javelin fish () at the third trophic level, reducing the number of shrimps consumed by each fish. The Spanish mackerel would accumulate a flesh concentration of 0.1 µg/kg P-CTX-1 eq. by preying upon the school of blotched javelin and consuming 3.6-14.4 µg of P-CTX-1 eq. However, published data indicate this burden of toxin could be accumulated by a 10 kg Spanish mackerel from as few as one to three blotched javelin fish, suggesting that much greater amounts of toxin than modelled here must at certain times be produced and transferred through Platypus Bay food chains. This modelling highlights the need for better quantitative estimates of ciguatoxin production, biotransformation, and depuration through marine food chains to improve our understanding and management of ciguatera risk.