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受污染的环境如何影响新冠疫情的传播动态?

How do the contaminated environment influence the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic?

作者信息

Sarkar Kankan, Mondal Jayanta, Khajanchi Subhas

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Malda College, Malda, West Bengal 732101 India.

Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700032 India.

出版信息

Eur Phys J Spec Top. 2022;231(18-20):3697-3716. doi: 10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00648-w. Epub 2022 Aug 22.

DOI:10.1140/epjs/s11734-022-00648-w
PMID:36033354
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9395851/
Abstract

COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus that first appeared in Wuhan city and then globally. The COVID-19 pandemic exudes public health and socio-economic burden globally. Mathematical modeling plays a significant role to comprehend the transmission dynamics and controlling factors of rapid spread of the disease. Researchers focus on the human-to-human transmission of the virus but the SARS-CoV-2 virus also contaminates the environment. In this study we proposed a nonlinear mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic to analyze the transmission dynamics of the disease in India. We have also incorporated the environment contamination by the infected individuals as the population density is very high in India. The model is fitted and parameterized using daily new infection data from India. Analytical study of the proposed COVID-19 model, including feasibility of critical points and their stability reveals that the infection-free steady state is stable if the basic reproduction number is less than unity otherwise the system shows significant outbreak. Numerical illustrations demonstrates that if the rate of environment contamination increased then the number of infected persons also increased. But if the environment is disinfected by sanitization then the number of infected persons cannot drastically increase.

摘要

COVID-19是一种由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)引起的传染病,该病毒最初出现在武汉市,随后蔓延至全球。COVID-19大流行给全球带来了公共卫生和社会经济负担。数学建模在理解该疾病快速传播的传播动态和控制因素方面发挥着重要作用。研究人员关注病毒的人际传播,但SARS-CoV-2病毒也会污染环境。在本研究中,我们提出了一个针对COVID-19大流行的非线性数学模型,以分析该疾病在印度的传播动态。由于印度人口密度非常高,我们还纳入了受感染个体对环境的污染情况。该模型使用来自印度的每日新增感染数据进行拟合和参数化。对所提出的COVID-19模型的分析研究,包括临界点的可行性及其稳定性表明,如果基本再生数小于1,则无感染稳态是稳定的,否则系统会出现显著爆发。数值例证表明,如果环境污染率增加,那么感染人数也会增加。但如果通过消毒对环境进行清洁,那么感染人数不会急剧增加。

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