Naik Parvaiz Ahmad, Zu Jian, Ghori Muhammad Bilal, Naik Mehraj-Ud-Din
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710049, PR China.
Department of Chemical Engineering, College of Engineering, Jazan University, Jazan 45142, Saudi Arabia.
Results Phys. 2021 Oct;29:104774. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104774. Epub 2021 Sep 3.
COVID-19 is an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused an outbreak of typical pneumonia first in Wuhan and then globally. Although researchers focus on the human-to-human transmission of this virus but not much research is done on the dynamics of the virus in the environment and the role humans play by releasing the virus into the environment. In this paper, a novel nonlinear mathematical model of the COVID-19 epidemic is proposed and analyzed under the effects of the environmental virus on the transmission patterns. The model consists of seven population compartments with the inclusion of contaminated environments means there is a chance to get infected by the virus in the environment. We also calculated the threshold quantity to know the disease status and provide conditions that guarantee the local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibria using Volterra-type Lyapunov functions, LaSalle's invariance principle, and the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is performed for the proposed model that determines the relative importance of the disease transmission parameters. Numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained theoretical results.
新冠病毒病（COVID-19）是由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）引起的一种传染病，该病首先在武汉爆发典型肺炎，随后在全球范围内爆发。尽管研究人员专注于这种病毒的人际传播，但对于病毒在环境中的动态以及人类将病毒释放到环境中所起的作用，研究相对较少。本文提出并分析了一种新型的新冠病毒病疫情非线性数学模型，该模型考虑了环境病毒对传播模式的影响。该模型由七个种群 compartments 组成，其中包括受污染环境，这意味着存在在环境中感染病毒的可能性。我们还计算了阈值量以了解疾病状态，并使用 Volterra 型李雅普诺夫函数、拉萨尔不变性原理和劳斯 - 赫尔维茨判据，给出了保证平衡点局部和全局渐近稳定性的条件。此外，对所提出的模型进行了敏感性分析，以确定疾病传播参数的相对重要性。进行了数值实验以说明所获得理论结果的有效性。
