Aizenman Joshua, Cukierman Alex, Jinjarak Yothin, Nair-Desai Sameer, Xin Weining
Economics and POIR, University of Southern California and NBER, Los Angeles, CA, 90089-0043, USA.
Tel-Aviv University School of Economics, Tel-Aviv, 69978, Israel.
Econ Model. 2022 Nov;116:105990. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105990. Epub 2022 Aug 23.
We evaluate quartile rankings of countries during the Covid-19 pandemic using both official (confirmed) and excess mortality data. By December 2021, the quartile rankings of three-fifths of the countries differ when ranked by excess vs. official mortality. Countries that are 'doing substantially better' in the excess mortality are characterized by higher urban population shares; higher GDP/Capita; and higher scores on institutional and policy variables. We perform two regressions in which the ratio of Cumulative Excess to Official Covid-19 mortalities (E/O ratio) is regressed on covariates. In a narrow study, controlling for GDP/Capita and vaccination rates, by December 2021 the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher vaccination rates. In a broad study, adding institutional and policy variables, the E/O ratio was smaller in countries with higher degree of voice and accountability. The arrival of vaccines in 2021 and voice and accountability had a discernible association on the E/O ratio.
我们使用官方（确诊）数据和超额死亡率数据来评估新冠疫情期间各国的四分位排名。到2021年12月，五分之三国家按超额死亡率与官方死亡率排名时，四分位排名有所不同。在超额死亡率方面“表现显著更好”的国家具有城市人口占比更高、人均GDP更高以及在制度和政策变量方面得分更高的特点。我们进行了两项回归分析，其中将累计超额新冠死亡率与官方新冠死亡率之比（E/O比）对协变量进行回归。在一项狭义研究中，控制人均GDP和疫苗接种率后，到2021年12月，疫苗接种率较高的国家E/O比更小。在一项广义研究中，加入制度和政策变量后，在发言权和问责程度较高的国家E/O比更小。2021年疫苗的到来以及发言权和问责与E/O比存在明显关联。
