从症状出现到严重 COVID-19 以及埃塞俄比亚南部患者的风险因素：生存分析。
Time from symptom onset to severe COVID-19 and risk factors among patients in Southern Ethiopia: a survival analysis.
机构信息
Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dilla University, Ethiopia.
Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dilla University, Ethiopia.
出版信息
J Int Med Res. 2022 Aug;50(8):3000605221119366. doi: 10.1177/03000605221119366.
OBJECTIVE
This study aimed to assess the time to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and risk factors among confirmed COVID-19 cases in Southern Ethiopia.
METHOD
This two-center retrospective cohort study involved patients with confirmed COVID-19 from 1 October 2020 to 30 September 2021. Kaplan-Meier graphs and log-rank tests were used to determine the pattern of COVID-19 severity among categories of variables. Bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional regression models were used to identify the risk factors of severe COVID-19.
RESULTS
Four hundred thirteen patients with COVID-19 with a mean age of 41.9 ± 15.3 years were involved in the study. There were 194 severe cases (46.9.1%), including 77 (39.6%) deaths. The median time from symptom onset to severe COVID-19 was 8 days (interquartile range: 7-12 days). The risk factors for severe COVID-19 were age >65 (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 2.65, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.02, 3.72), cough (AHR = 1.59, 95%CI: 1.39, 2.84), chest pain (AHR = 1.47, 95%CI: 1.34, 2.66), headache (AHR = 2.04, 95%CI: 1.43, 2.88), comorbidity (AHR = 1.3, 95%CI: 1.01, 2.04), asthma (AHR = 1.6. 95%CI: 1.04, 2.24), and symptom onset to admission more than 5 days (AHR = 0.48, 95%CI: 0.34, 0.68).
CONCLUSION
Patients with symptoms and comorbidities should be closely monitored.
目的
本研究旨在评估埃塞俄比亚南部确诊的 2019 冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例的严重 COVID-19 发病时间和危险因素。
方法
这是一项在两个中心进行的回顾性队列研究，涉及 2020 年 10 月 1 日至 2021 年 9 月 30 日期间确诊的 COVID-19 患者。使用 Kaplan-Meier 图和对数秩检验来确定不同变量类别中 COVID-19 严重程度的模式。使用单变量和多变量 Cox 比例风险回归模型来确定严重 COVID-19 的危险因素。
结果
本研究纳入了 413 名平均年龄为 41.9±15.3 岁的 COVID-19 患者。其中有 194 例为重症病例（46.9%），包括 77 例（39.6%）死亡。从症状出现到严重 COVID-19 的中位时间为 8 天（四分位距：7-12 天）。严重 COVID-19 的危险因素包括年龄>65 岁（调整后的危险比 [AHR] = 2.65，95%置信区间 [95%CI]：1.02，3.72）、咳嗽（AHR = 1.59，95%CI：1.39，2.84）、胸痛（AHR = 1.47，95%CI：1.34，2.66）、头痛（AHR = 2.04，95%CI：1.43，2.88）、合并症（AHR = 1.3，95%CI：1.01，2.04）、哮喘（AHR = 1.6，95%CI：1.04，2.24）和症状出现至入院时间超过 5 天（AHR = 0.48，95%CI：0.34，0.68）。
结论
应密切监测有症状和合并症的患者。
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