Siddique A K, Eusof A
Trop Geogr Med. 1987 Jan;39(1):3-8.
In May 1985, a cyclone from the Bay of Bengal struck the coastal islands of Bangladesh. In spite of early detection of atmospheric turbulence and the history of severe cyclones in the area, an estimated 11,000 people lost their lives. In a natural experiment, cyclone death rates from the two severely affected islands, Urir Char and Sandwip, were analysed to determine the risk factors of cyclone-associated mortality. In Urir Char, in which no cyclone shelters existed, the study group lost 40% of the family members in contrast to 3.4% from Sandwip, where at least eight cyclone shelters existed. Individuals who did not seek shelter were at the highest risk. Barriers in seeking safety were physical as well as behavioural. Easy access to shelters was a significant factor in reducing the risk. Deaths could have been averted through improved timing and method of advance warning.
1985年5月，一场来自孟加拉湾的气旋袭击了孟加拉国的沿海岛屿。尽管该地区早期检测到了大气湍流且有严重气旋的历史记录，但估计仍有1.1万人丧生。在一项自然实验中，对受影响严重的两个岛屿——乌里尔查尔岛和桑德维普岛的气旋死亡率进行了分析，以确定与气旋相关的死亡风险因素。在没有气旋避难所的乌里尔查尔岛，研究组中有40%的家庭成员丧生，而在至少有8个气旋避难所的桑德维普岛，这一比例为3.4%。未寻求避难的个人风险最高。寻求安全的障碍既有身体上的，也有行为上的。容易到达避难所是降低风险的一个重要因素。通过改进预警的时间和方法，本可避免死亡。
