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Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.2017 年至 2100 年 195 个国家和地区的生育率、死亡率、迁移和人口预测情景:全球疾病负担研究的预测分析。
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气候变化、外科护理与被忽视热带病之间的联系。

The Connection between Climate Change, Surgical Care and Neglected Tropical Diseases.

机构信息

Program in Medical Education, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, US.

Program in Medical Education, University of Florida College of Medicine, Gainesville, FL, US.

出版信息

Ann Glob Health. 2022 Aug 8;88(1):68. doi: 10.5334/aogh.3766. eCollection 2022.

DOI:10.5334/aogh.3766
PMID:36043041
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9374016/
Abstract

The surgical burden of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is set to rise alongside average temperatures and drought. NTDs with surgical indications, including trachoma and lymphatic filariasis, predominantly affect people in low- and middle-income countries where the gravest effects of climate change are likely to be felt. Vectors sensitive to temperature and rainfall will likely expand their reach to previously nonendemic regions, while drought may exacerbate NTD burden in already resource-strained settings. Current NTD mitigation strategies, including mass drug administrations, were interrupted by COVID-19, demonstrating the vulnerability of NTD progress to global events. Without NTD programming that meshes with surgical systems strengthening, climate change may outpace current strategies to reduce the burden of these diseases.

摘要

随着平均气温和干旱的上升,被忽视的热带病(NTDs)的手术负担也将增加。具有手术指征的 NTD 包括沙眼和淋巴丝虫病,主要影响中低收入国家的人群,而这些国家最有可能感受到气候变化的最严重影响。对温度和降雨敏感的病媒可能会将其传播范围扩大到以前非流行地区,而干旱可能会使资源紧张地区的 NTD 负担恶化。目前的 NTD 缓解策略,包括大规模药物治疗,都因 COVID-19 而中断,这表明 NTD 进展对全球事件的脆弱性。如果没有与外科系统强化相匹配的 NTD 规划,气候变化可能会超过目前减少这些疾病负担的策略。