Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA.
School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Nature. 2022 Oct;610(7933):687-692. doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9. Epub 2022 Sep 1.
The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO. Our preferred mean SC-CO estimate is $185 per tonne of CO ($44-$413 per tCO: 5%-95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government's current value of $51 per tCO. Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.
二氧化碳的社会成本(SC-CO)衡量的是每增加一吨二氧化碳排放对社会造成的损害的货币价值,是为气候政策提供信息的关键指标。SC-CO 估算被政府和其他决策者用于效益成本分析已有十多年,它借鉴了气候科学、经济学、人口统计学和其他学科的知识。然而,美国国家科学院、工程院和医学院(NASEM)在 2017 年的一份报告中强调,目前的 SC-CO 估算不再反映最新的研究结果。该报告提出了一系列建议,以改善 SC-CO 估算的科学基础、透明度和不确定性特征。在这里,我们展示了改进的概率社会经济预测、气候模型、损害函数和贴现方法,这些方法共同反映了对风险的理论一致的估值,大大增加了 SC-CO 的估算值。我们首选的平均 SC-CO 估算值为每吨二氧化碳 185 美元(2020 年美元,44-413 美元/吨二氧化碳:5%-95%范围),在无风险贴现率为 2%的近期情况下,这一价值是美国政府目前 51 美元/吨二氧化碳的 3.6 倍。我们的估算值在新的开源温室气体影响价值估算器(GIVE)模型中纳入了所有 SC-CO 估算组成部分的最新科学理解,完全响应了 NASEM 近期的建议。与目前用于政策评估的估算值相比,我们更高的 SC-CO 值大大增加了温室气体缓解的估计收益,从而增加了更严格气候政策的预期净收益。