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综合证据表明,CO 的社会成本更高。

Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO.

机构信息

Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA.

School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.

出版信息

Nature. 2022 Oct;610(7933):687-692. doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9. Epub 2022 Sep 1.

Abstract

The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO. Our preferred mean SC-CO estimate is $185 per tonne of CO ($44-$413 per tCO: 5%-95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government's current value of $51 per tCO. Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.

摘要

二氧化碳的社会成本(SC-CO)衡量的是每增加一吨二氧化碳排放对社会造成的损害的货币价值,是为气候政策提供信息的关键指标。SC-CO 估算被政府和其他决策者用于效益成本分析已有十多年,它借鉴了气候科学、经济学、人口统计学和其他学科的知识。然而,美国国家科学院、工程院和医学院(NASEM)在 2017 年的一份报告中强调,目前的 SC-CO 估算不再反映最新的研究结果。该报告提出了一系列建议,以改善 SC-CO 估算的科学基础、透明度和不确定性特征。在这里,我们展示了改进的概率社会经济预测、气候模型、损害函数和贴现方法,这些方法共同反映了对风险的理论一致的估值,大大增加了 SC-CO 的估算值。我们首选的平均 SC-CO 估算值为每吨二氧化碳 185 美元(2020 年美元,44-413 美元/吨二氧化碳:5%-95%范围),在无风险贴现率为 2%的近期情况下,这一价值是美国政府目前 51 美元/吨二氧化碳的 3.6 倍。我们的估算值在新的开源温室气体影响价值估算器(GIVE)模型中纳入了所有 SC-CO 估算组成部分的最新科学理解,完全响应了 NASEM 近期的建议。与目前用于政策评估的估算值相比,我们更高的 SC-CO 值大大增加了温室气体缓解的估计收益,从而增加了更严格气候政策的预期净收益。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1d6a/9605864/123bf886da99/41586_2022_5224_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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