Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy.
RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy.
Nat Commun. 2021 Jun 8;12(1):3421. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-23613-y.
Benefit-cost analyses of climate policies by integrated assessment models have generated conflicting assessments. Two critical issues affecting social welfare are regional heterogeneity and inequality. These have only partly been accounted for in existing frameworks. Here, we present a benefit-cost model with more than 50 regions, calibrated upon emissions and mitigation cost data from detailed-process IAMs, and featuring country-level economic damages. We compare countries' self-interested and cooperative behaviour under a range of assumptions about socioeconomic development, climate impacts, and preferences over time and inequality. Results indicate that without international cooperation, global temperature rises, though less than in commonly-used reference scenarios. Cooperation stabilizes temperature within the Paris goals (1.80C [1.53C-2.31C] in 2100). Nevertheless, economic inequality persists: the ratio between top and bottom income deciles is 117% higher than without climate change impacts, even for economically optimal pathways.
综合评估模型对气候政策的效益-成本分析产生了相互矛盾的评估结果。影响社会福利的两个关键问题是区域异质性和不平等。这些问题在现有框架中只得到了部分考虑。在这里,我们提出了一个具有 50 多个地区的效益-成本模型,该模型根据详细过程 IAMs 的排放和减排成本数据进行了校准,并具有国家级别的经济损失。我们在一系列关于社会经济发展、气候影响以及对时间和不平等的偏好的假设下,比较了各国在自身利益和合作行为下的表现。结果表明,如果没有国际合作,全球气温上升幅度虽然低于常用参考情景,但仍会上升。合作将使 2100 年的全球气温稳定在《巴黎协定》目标范围内(1.80°C[1.53°C-2.31°C])。然而,经济不平等仍然存在:即使对于经济最优路径,顶层和底层收入十分位数之间的比率也比没有气候变化影响时高出 117%。