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在整个能源转型过程中,战略性部署太阳能光伏以实现欧洲的能源自给自足。

Strategic deployment of solar photovoltaics for achieving self-sufficiency in Europe throughout the energy transition.

作者信息

Rahdan Parisa, Zeyen Elisabeth, Victoria Marta

机构信息

Department of Mechanical and Production Engineering and iCLIMATE Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.

Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2025 Jul 7;16(1):6259. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-61492-9.

Abstract

Transition pathways for Europe to achieve carbon neutrality emphasize the need for a massive deployment of solar and wind energy. Global cost optimization would lead to installing most of the renewable capacity in a few resource-rich countries, but policy decisions could prioritize other factors. We investigate the effect of energy independence on Europe's energy system design. We show that self-sufficiency constraints lead to a more equitable distribution of costs and installed capacities across Europe. However, countries that typically depend on energy imports face cost increases of up to 150% to ensure that they cover their demand on an annual basis. Self-sufficiency particularly favors solar photovoltaic energy, and with declining PV module prices, alternative configurations like inverter dimensioning and horizontal tracking are beneficial enough to be part of the optimal solution for many countries. Moreover, we find that very high solar and wind annual installation rates are required, but they seem feasible considering recent historical trends.

摘要

欧洲实现碳中和的转型路径强调大规模部署太阳能和风能的必要性。全球成本优化将导致大部分可再生能源装机容量集中在少数资源丰富的国家,但政策决策可能会优先考虑其他因素。我们研究了能源独立对欧洲能源系统设计的影响。我们发现,自给自足的限制会使成本和装机容量在欧洲各国之间得到更公平的分配。然而,那些通常依赖能源进口的国家为确保每年满足自身需求,成本将上涨高达150%。自给自足尤其有利于太阳能光伏发电,随着光伏组件价格的下降,诸如逆变器尺寸确定和水平跟踪等替代配置对许多国家而言,已足够有利可图,足以成为最优解决方案的一部分。此外,我们发现需要非常高的太阳能和风能年装机率,但考虑到近期的历史趋势,这似乎是可行的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6a65/12234877/8423a76b3531/41467_2025_61492_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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