Deeg Dorly J H, Blekesaune Morten, de Wind Astrid
Department of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, P.O. Box 7057, 1007 MB Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Department of Sociology and Social Work, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway.
Eur J Ageing. 2021 Dec 24;19(3):689-698. doi: 10.1007/s10433-021-00664-0. eCollection 2022 Sep.
Observed increases in retirement age are generally attributed to policies to extend working lives (PEW). In a quasi-experimental design, we examine to what extent increases in employment of older workers can be attributed to secular changes in individual characteristics as opposed to PEW. We compare two countries: one with clear PEW (the Netherlands) and one without PEW (Norway). Data come from the Dutch Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam and the NORwegian Longitudinal study on Aging and Generations. From each study, two same-age (55-64 years) samples are selected, one recruited in 2002-03, and one recruited after five (Norway) and ten years (Netherlands). In pooled regression analysis, paid work is the outcome variable, and time of measurement, the main independent variable. Individual characteristics include age, sex, educational level, self-perceived health, functional limitations, sense of mastery, and work status of partner. Employment rose in both countries, faster in the Netherlands than in Norway. Of the rise in employment, individual characteristics explained less in the Netherlands than in Norway. Accounting for these, the interaction country*time was significant, indicating an extra rise in employment of 5.2 and 7.5% points for Dutch men and women, net of individual characteristics and unobserved factors that are assumed to be similar in both countries. The extra rise in the Netherlands represents 57% of the total rise for both sexes. Thus, secular change in individual characteristics explains part of the rise in employment in both countries. In the Netherlands, other factors such as PEW may additionally explain the rise in employment.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-021-00664-0.
观察到的退休年龄增加通常归因于延长工作寿命的政策（PEW）。在一项准实验设计中，我们研究老年工人就业的增加在多大程度上可归因于个人特征的长期变化，而非PEW。我们比较两个国家：一个有明确的PEW（荷兰），另一个没有PEW（挪威）。数据来自荷兰阿姆斯特丹纵向老龄化研究和挪威老龄化与代际纵向研究。从每项研究中选取两个同龄（55 - 64岁）样本，一个在2002 - 2003年招募，另一个在五年后（挪威）和十年后（荷兰）招募。在汇总回归分析中，有偿工作是结果变量，测量时间是主要自变量。个人特征包括年龄、性别、教育水平、自我感知健康状况、功能受限情况、掌控感以及伴侣的工作状况。两国的就业均有所上升，荷兰上升得比挪威更快。在就业增长中，个人特征在荷兰的解释作用比在挪威小。考虑到这些因素，国家*时间的交互作用显著，表明荷兰男性和女性在扣除两国假定相似的个人特征和未观察到的因素后，就业额外增长了5.2和7.5个百分点。荷兰的额外增长占两性总增长的57%。因此，个人特征的长期变化解释了两国就业增长的部分原因。在荷兰，诸如PEW等其他因素可能额外解释了就业增长。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10433 - 021 - 00664 - 0获取的补充材料。
