Rigoli Francesco
Department of Psychology, City, University of London, Northampton Square, London, EC1V 0HB UK.
Rev Philos Psychol. 2022 Aug 27:1-18. doi: 10.1007/s13164-022-00657-7.
In the social sciences, research on conspiracy theories is accumulating fast. To contribute to this research, here I introduce a computational model about the psychological processes underlying support for conspiracy theories. The proposal is that endorsement of these theories depends on three factors: prior beliefs, novel evidence, and expected consequences. Thanks to the latter, a conspiracy hypothesis might be selected because it is the costliest to reject even if it is not the best supported by evidence and by prior beliefs (i.e., even if it is not the most accurate). In this way, the model implies a key role for motivated reasoning. By examining the social conditions that favour the success of conspiracy theories, the paper embeds the model, whose focus is primarily psychological, within the broader social context, and applies this analysis to probe the role of conspiracy theories within contemporary Western societies. Altogether, the paper argues that a computational outlook can contribute to elucidate the socio-psychological dynamics underlying the attractiveness of conspiracy theories.
在社会科学领域，关于阴谋论的研究正在迅速积累。为推动这项研究，在此我介绍一个关于支持阴谋论背后心理过程的计算模型。该模型认为，对这些理论的认同取决于三个因素：先验信念、新证据和预期后果。由于存在预期后果，一个阴谋假设可能会被选中，因为即使它在证据和先验信念方面并非最具支持力（即即便它不是最准确的），但拒绝它的成本却是最高的。通过这种方式，该模型暗示了动机性推理的关键作用。通过审视有利于阴谋论成功的社会条件，本文将这个主要聚焦于心理层面的模型置于更广阔的社会背景中，并运用这一分析来探究阴谋论在当代西方社会中的作用。总体而言，本文认为计算视角有助于阐明阴谋论吸引力背后的社会心理动态。
