Mashrur Sk Md, Wang Kaili, Habib Khandker Nurul
Department of Civil and Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Percy Edward Hart Professor in Civil & Mineral Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2022 Oct;164:352-378. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.08.020. Epub 2022 Aug 31.
COVID-19 had an unprecedented impact on transit demand and usage. Stiff and vigilant hygiene safety requirements changed travellers' mode choice preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, transit modal share is radically impacted. Therefore, quantitative measurements on transit demand impact are urgently needed to facilitate evidence-based policy responses to COVID-19. Thus, we collected 1000 random samples through a web-based survey in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, on traveler's modal choices behavior during the COIVD-19 pandemic. The paper presents an analysis with this firsthand dataset to understand transit users' behavioral adaptation resulting from the spreading of COVID-19 in 2020. We found that the transit frequency dropped by 21% to 71% for various socioeconomic groups in the GTA during the pandemic. The transit modal share dipped for all trip purposes. For private vehicle owners, around 70% of transit users switched to their private vehicles. More than 60% of those without cars switched to active transport for all travel purposes. Also, ride-hailing services are the second most popular substitution of transit for them. More than 80% of the respondents agreed with all transit safety policies, such as mandatory face-covering listed in the survey. Moreover, a similar proportion of the respondents agreed to return to public transit in the future. Multinomial, nested, and mixed logit models are estimated to capture relationships between modal choices and various factors. We found that the daily number of new COVID-19 cases impacts the choice of transit negatively. However, vaccine availability and mandatory face-covering onboard positively affect travellers' choices of riding transit during the pandemic.
新冠疫情对公共交通需求和使用产生了前所未有的影响。严格且警惕的卫生安全要求改变了新冠疫情期间旅行者的出行方式选择偏好。具体而言，公共交通方式份额受到了根本性的影响。因此，迫切需要对公共交通需求影响进行定量测量，以便为应对新冠疫情制定基于证据的政策。于是，我们通过在加拿大多伦多地区（GTA）进行的一项基于网络的调查，收集了1000个随机样本，以了解新冠疫情期间旅行者的出行方式选择行为。本文利用这一第一手数据集进行分析，以了解2020年新冠疫情传播导致的公共交通使用者的行为适应情况。我们发现，疫情期间，GTA不同社会经济群体的公共交通出行频率下降了21%至71%。所有出行目的的公共交通方式份额均有所下降。对于私家车车主而言，约70%的公共交通使用者转而使用私家车。超过60%没有汽车的人在所有出行目的中都转而选择了主动出行方式。此外，拼车服务是他们第二受欢迎的公共交通替代方式。超过80%的受访者同意所有公共交通安全政策，如调查中列出的强制佩戴口罩政策。此外，类似比例的受访者同意未来会回归公共交通出行。我们估计了多项、嵌套和混合logit模型，以捕捉出行方式选择与各种因素之间的关系。我们发现，新冠疫情每日新增病例数对公共交通选择有负面影响。然而，疫苗可及性和车上强制佩戴口罩政策在疫情期间对旅行者选择乘坐公共交通有积极影响。
