Jiang Tingfeng, Liu Taoxiong, Tang Ke, Zeng Jiaqing
School of Banking & Finance, University of International Business and Economics, China.
School of Social Science, Tsinghua University, China.
Financ Res Lett. 2022 Oct;49:103166. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103166. Epub 2022 Jul 19.
Given the lack of activity in China's offline economy during the COVID-19 quarantine period, online prices provide new insights for analyzing the impacts of the pandemic on the economy. Using online prices from 107 websites in China and the DiD method to remove the Spring Festival effect, we show that the pandemic leads to a 0.4% surge in the overall inflation rate, a 20% decrease in the price change probability, and a 1% decline in the size of absolute price changes. Moreover, the pandemic had heterogeneous impacts on different sectors, leading to significant structural changes in inflation. Specifically, the pandemic hindered the price correction behavior after Spring Festival, and whether products could be consumed while customers stayed at home was an important factor affecting price adjustment and inflation dynamics.
鉴于新冠疫情隔离期间中国线下经济活动停滞，线上价格为分析疫情对经济的影响提供了新视角。利用中国107个网站的线上价格，并采用双重差分法消除春节效应，我们发现疫情导致总体通胀率飙升0.4%，价格变化概率下降20%，绝对价格变化幅度下降1%。此外，疫情对不同行业产生了异质性影响，导致通胀出现显著的结构性变化。具体而言，疫情阻碍了春节后的价格调整行为，产品是否能在消费者居家期间消费是影响价格调整和通胀动态的重要因素。
