Yang Senyan, Ning Lianju, Jiang Tingfeng, He Yingqi
School of Modern Post (School of Automation), Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, 100876, PR China.
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, 100876, PR China.
Transp Policy (Oxf). 2021 Sep;111:111-124. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.07.012. Epub 2021 Jul 20.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic brings huge consequences on the global economy and health. Diverse restrictive policies have been enforced to prevent the novel Coronavirus from spreading. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the express logistics companies transport essential goods among different regions in China, supporting people's normal lives. This study explores the dynamic impacts of COVID-19 epidemic on the intra-provincial and inter-provincial express parcel flows based on the statistical and econometric analysis considering the individual-specific effects of each province. The key results obtained from the unique long-run panel data analysis are: (1) the temporal fluctuation of inter-provincial express logistics flows affected by the epidemic is stronger than that of intra-provincial flows, both of which also show significant spatial heterogeneity; (2) the process of China's fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic is divided into four stages according to the severity of pandemic and implications of restrictive policies, which have moderating effects for the impacts on the express logistics; (3) the dynamic effects of the pandemic on the express logistics are obviously heterogeneous in different stages, confirming the effectiveness of restrictive and support policies; (4) the delayed effects of COVID-19 epidemic on the regional express logistics vary with different setting of time lags. In the short term, the typical restrictive policies and Chinese Spring Festival holidays have significant negative effects on the express logistics. In the long term, the resumption of work and production stimulate the demands of express logistics, presenting significant positive effects in post-epidemic era. This study can provide the policy implications for the logistics planning and management under the public health intervention.
新冠疫情的爆发给全球经济和健康带来了巨大影响。各国已实施多种限制政策以防止新型冠状病毒传播。在新冠疫情期间，中国的快递物流公司在不同地区之间运输 essential goods，保障人们的正常生活。本研究基于考虑各省个体效应的统计和计量分析，探讨新冠疫情对省内和省际快递包裹流量的动态影响。从独特的长期面板数据分析中得出的关键结果如下：（1）受疫情影响的省际快递物流流量的时间波动强于省内流量，两者均呈现出显著的空间异质性；（2）根据疫情严重程度和限制政策的影响，中国抗击新冠疫情的过程分为四个阶段，这些阶段对快递物流的影响具有调节作用；（3）疫情对快递物流的动态影响在不同阶段明显异质，证实了限制政策和支持政策的有效性；（4）新冠疫情对区域快递物流的延迟影响因时间滞后的设定不同而有所差异。短期内，典型的限制政策和中国春节假期对快递物流有显著负面影响。从长期来看，复工复产刺激了快递物流需求，在疫情后时代呈现出显著的积极影响。本研究可为公共卫生干预下的物流规划和管理提供政策启示。
