Ji Chunlei, Zhang Chu, Hua Lei, Ma Huixin, Nazir Muhammad Shahzad, Peng Tian
Faculty of Automation, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai'an, 223003, China.
Faculty of Automation, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai'an, 223003, China; Jiangsu Permanent Magnet Motor Engineering Research Center, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai'an, 223003, China.
Environ Res. 2022 Dec;215(Pt 1):114228. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.114228. Epub 2022 Sep 6.
With the rapid development of economy, air pollution occurs frequently, which has a huge negative impact on human health and urban ecosystem. Air quality index (AQI) can directly reflect the degree of air pollution. Accurate AQI trend prediction can provide reliable information for the prevention and control of air pollution, but traditional forecasting methods have limited performance. To this end, a dual-scale ensemble learning framework is proposed for the complex AQI time series prediction. First, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and sample entropy (SE) are used to decompose and reconstruct AQI series to reduce the difficulty of direct modeling. Then, according to the characteristics of high and low frequencies, the high-frequency components are predicted by the long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), and the low-frequency items are predicted by the regularized extreme learning machine (RELM). At the same time, the improved whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is used to optimize the hyper-parameters of RELM and LSTM models. Finally, the hybrid prediction model proposed in this paper predicts the AQI of four cities in China. This work effectively improves the prediction accuracy of AQI, which is of great significance to the sustainable development of the cities.
随着经济的快速发展,空气污染频繁发生,这对人类健康和城市生态系统产生了巨大的负面影响。空气质量指数(AQI)能够直接反映空气污染程度。准确的AQI趋势预测可为空气污染的防治提供可靠信息,但传统预测方法性能有限。为此,针对复杂的AQI时间序列预测提出了一种双尺度集成学习框架。首先,使用完备总体经验模态分解自适应噪声(CEEMDAN)和样本熵(SE)对AQI序列进行分解和重构,以降低直接建模的难度。然后,根据高频和低频特性,利用长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)预测高频分量,利用正则化极限学习机(RELM)预测低频项。同时,采用改进的鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)对RELM和LSTM模型的超参数进行优化。最后,本文提出的混合预测模型对中国四个城市的AQI进行了预测。这项工作有效提高了AQI的预测精度,对城市的可持续发展具有重要意义。