Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Food Science and Bioengineering School, Xihua University, Chengdu, China.
Int J Health Plann Manage. 2023 Jan;38(1):149-161. doi: 10.1002/hpm.3575. Epub 2022 Sep 9.
Dietary patterns with a high intake of fruits and vegetables (FV) are associated with a reduced risk of various cancers. It is not yet clear where and to what extent a decline in crop productivity caused by climate change may modify the distribution of related cancer burdens through reducing FV consumption in China. To design policies and interventions aimed at improving FV intake, regional monitoring is required on how consumption-changing factors might impact the associated cancer burdens by socio-demographic subpopulations.
A microsimulation study was conducted from a societal perspective to project the effects of cancers associated with inadequate FV intake attributable to climate change. We linked the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade to a health modelling framework for obesity, gastric cancer, lung cancer, and oesophageal cancer in a close-to-reality synthetic population.
In the presence of climate constantly change, the relative reduction in FV consumption would induce an additional 9.73 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) nationally over the period 2010-2050 ([CrI]: 7.83-12.13). The climate change-induced cancer burden is projected to disproportionately affect socio-demographic index regions from 0.65 to 5.06 million DALYs.
Effects of climate change on FV consumption are anticipated to exacerbate intra-regional inequalities in the associated cancer burdens of China by 2050. By quantitatively analysing the impact of such dietary changes on regional health in light of climate change, our research can inform the design of public health interventions for heterogeneous populations, as health impact assessments based solely on the population as a whole cannot reflect significant differences across subpopulations.
大量摄入水果和蔬菜（FV）的饮食模式与降低多种癌症的风险有关。目前尚不清楚气候变化导致的作物生产力下降会在多大程度上通过减少中国的 FV 消费来改变相关癌症负担的分布。为了设计旨在提高 FV 摄入量的政策和干预措施，需要从社会角度进行区域监测，了解消费变化因素如何通过改变社会人口亚组的 FV 摄入量来影响相关癌症负担。
从社会角度出发，采用微观模拟研究来预测与气候变化导致的 FV 摄入不足相关的癌症的影响。我们将国际农产品政策分析模型与肥胖、胃癌、肺癌和食管癌的健康建模框架联系起来，在一个接近现实的综合人群中进行。
在气候变化持续存在的情况下，FV 消费的相对减少将在 2010 年至 2050 年期间导致全国额外增加 973 万伤残调整生命年（DALYs）（CrI：783-1213）。预计气候变化引起的癌症负担将不成比例地影响社会人口指数地区，造成 650 万至 5060 万 DALYs 的损失。
预计到 2050 年，气候变化对 FV 消费的影响将加剧中国相关癌症负担的区域不平等。通过根据气候变化定量分析这种饮食变化对区域健康的影响，我们的研究可以为针对不同人群的公共卫生干预措施的设计提供信息，因为仅基于整个人群的健康影响评估不能反映亚人群之间的显著差异。
