Department of Economics and Management, Wenhua College, Wuhan, 430073, China.
Research Center of Internet and Industrial Innovation, Wenhua College, Wuhan, 430073, China.
Sci Rep. 2022 Sep 10;12(1):15260. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-19604-8.
Many developing countries are facing the difficulty of choosing between economic growth and energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER). China has strengthened the implementation of ECER by setting environmental accountability as the development goal of local governments, hoping to have better governance effects. To evaluate the actual intervention effect of this approach, this paper constructs panel data covering 46 countries from 1995 to 2014 and uses the difference-in-differences (DID) method and the composite control method to quantitatively analyse the policy effect. The results show that China can effectively curb energy consumption and carbon emission intensity per unit of GDP by adding ECER targets to the government's five-year plan, which has significant effects on ECER. Furthermore, we use an intermediary mechanism to test and identify low-carbon alternatives and an ECER promotion mechanism for technological advancement. The conclusion shows that economic development is compatible with low carbon and energy consumption. Combined with China's long-term goals for ECER, it can be considered that on the road to achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the future, the economy and tertiary industry should be rationally developed, the degree of urbanization should receive more attention, and the proportion of thermal power generation should be reduced.
许多发展中国家在经济增长与节能减排之间面临着两难选择。中国通过将环境问责制作为地方政府的发展目标，加强了节能减排的实施，希望取得更好的治理效果。为了评估这一方法的实际干预效果，本文构建了涵盖 1995 年至 2014 年 46 个国家的面板数据，并采用双重差分（DID）法和合成控制法对政策效果进行了定量分析。结果表明，中国通过在政府五年规划中加入节能减排目标，可以有效遏制单位 GDP 能源消耗和碳排放强度，对节能减排具有显著影响。此外，我们利用中介机制检验并识别了低碳替代和促进技术进步的节能减排推动机制。结论表明，经济发展与低碳和能耗是兼容的。结合中国节能减排的长期目标，可以认为在未来实现碳峰值和碳中和的道路上，应合理发展经济和第三产业，更加注重城市化程度，并降低火力发电的比例。
