Kapalu Njamba, Kodongo Odongo
Wits Business School, 2 St. David's Place Parktown, Johannesburg 2193, South Africa.
Heliyon. 2022 Sep 7;8(9):e10469. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10469. eCollection 2022 Sep.
We examine the effects of covid-19 infections and deaths on bond yields and stock returns and possible contagion effects across markets using data for the period 01.07.2019 through 30.06.2020. Deploying different empirical techniques, we find, unlike some papers in the literature that group countries and run panel regressions, that the effects of covid-19 on the financial markets differed by country depending on the way the outbreak was managed. First, covid-19 generally had a fleeting effect on stock returns and bond yields. Second, in countries that experienced a covid-19 health crisis during the study period (e.g., UK and Italy), covid-19 were associated with bond yield increases. For countries employing less restrictive ways of managing the disease (e.g., Sweden), the covid-19 outbreak elicited investor fears of near-term burgeoning infections and possible concomitant economic effects, which caused bond yields to rise.
我们利用2019年7月1日至2020年6月30日期间的数据，研究了新冠疫情感染和死亡对债券收益率和股票回报的影响，以及跨市场可能存在的传染效应。运用不同的实证技术，我们发现，与文献中一些将国家分组并进行面板回归的论文不同，新冠疫情对金融市场的影响因国家而异，这取决于疫情的管控方式。首先，新冠疫情通常对股票回报和债券收益率产生短暂影响。其次，在研究期间经历新冠健康危机的国家（如英国和意大利），新冠疫情与债券收益率上升有关。对于采用限制较少的疾病管控方式的国家（如瑞典），新冠疫情爆发引发了投资者对近期感染激增以及可能随之而来的经济影响的担忧，这导致债券收益率上升。
