Civil, Environmental, and Sustainable Engineering, Arizona State University, 660 S. College Avenue, Tempe, Arizona 85281, USA.
Nat Commun. 2017 May 15;8:14916. doi: 10.1038/ncomms14916.
Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41-87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand.
气候变化可能会显著影响建筑物中的能源消费需求，因为气温变化可能会改变供暖和制冷负荷。气候变暖还可能导致建筑物中冷却技术的采用和使用增加。我们根据多种气候变化预测评估了加利福尼亚州洛杉矶的住宅用电和天然气需求，并研究了提高能源效率以抵消需求增加的潜力。我们根据计量数据对住宅能源使用进行校准，考虑了建筑材料和电器的差异。在温度升高的情况下，我们发现，如果没有政策干预，2020 年至 2060 年期间，居民用电量可能会增加 41%至 87%。然而，旨在升级供暖/制冷系统和电器的积极政策可能会导致用电量增加低至 28%，从而有可能避免新发电容量的安装。因此，我们建议采取积极的能源效率措施，结合低碳发电来源，以抵消住宅能源需求的预计增长。
