Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, California, USA.
Division of Biostatistics, University of California, San Diego, California, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2022 Dec;28(24):7327-7339. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16396. Epub 2022 Sep 19.
We explore the ability of the atmospheric CO record since 1900 to constrain the source of CO from land use and land cover change (hereafter "land use"), taking account of uncertainties in other terms in the global carbon budget. We find that the atmospheric constraint favors land use CO flux estimates with lower decadal variability and can identify potentially erroneous features, such as emission peaks around 1960 and after 2000, in some published estimates. Furthermore, we resolve an offset in the global carbon budget that is most plausibly attributed to the land use flux. This correction shifts the mean land use flux since 1900 across 20 published estimates down by 0.35 PgC year to 1.04 ± 0.57 PgC year , which is within the range but at the low end of these estimates. We show that the atmospheric CO record can provide insights into the time history of the land use flux that may reduce uncertainty in this term and improve current understanding and projections of the global carbon cycle.
我们探讨了自 1900 年以来大气 CO 记录在约束 CO 源（来自土地利用和土地覆盖变化，以下简称“土地利用”）方面的能力，同时考虑了全球碳预算中其他因素的不确定性。我们发现，大气约束有利于具有较低年代际变异性的土地利用 CO 通量估算，并可以识别出一些已发表估算中潜在的错误特征，例如 1960 年左右和 2000 年后的排放峰值。此外，我们解决了全球碳预算中的一个偏差，这个偏差最有可能归因于土地利用通量。这个修正将自 1900 年以来的全球土地利用通量在 20 个已发表的估算中向下移动了 0.35PgC 年，达到 1.04±0.57PgC 年，这在这些估算的范围内，但处于低值。我们表明，大气 CO 记录可以提供有关土地利用通量时间历史的见解，这可能会降低该术语的不确定性，并改善对全球碳循环的当前理解和预测。
