Rashidian Hamideh, Haghdoost Ali Akbar, Daroudi Rajabali, Raadabadi Mehdi, Ebadzadeh Mohammad Reza, Zendehdel Kazem
Cancer Research Center, Cancer Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Regional Knowledge Hub, and WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2022 Apr 18;36:37. doi: 10.47176/mjiri.36.37. eCollection 2022.
Bladder cancer is among the 10 most common cancers globally and in Iran. The prevalence rate is a crucial metric for both estimating disease burden and policymakers. On the other hand, bladder cancer is a heterogeneous disease with different stages, high recurrence, and progression rate. In planning treatment procedures, it is important to know the prevalence of bladder cancer by stages. In the current study, we aimed to estimate the 5-year prevalence of bladder cancer by stages using the Markov model. This was a simulation study. To estimate the 5-year prevalence of bladder cancer by stages, we used the Markov model with a time horizon of 5 years following diagnosis. We simulated the natural history of bladder cancer using a literature review. We extracted survival rate, stage-specific recurrence, and progression rate using local and international publications and expert opinion. In addition, we used the Iranian life table and extracted probabilities of mortality due to other causes of death. Five-year prevalence of bladder cancer for the year 2018 was estimated at 21,807 patients. Non- muscle-invasive bladder cancer accounted for around 68% of all cases, with 42% in the Ta low-grade stage. About 32% of bladder cancer prevalent cases were muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients, from which about 8% had metastatic tumors. Researchers and policymakers can utilize the findings of this study to conduct economic burden analyses and plan resource allocation.
膀胱癌是全球和伊朗最常见的10种癌症之一。患病率是评估疾病负担和政策制定者的关键指标。另一方面，膀胱癌是一种异质性疾病，具有不同阶段、高复发率和进展率。在规划治疗程序时，了解各阶段膀胱癌的患病率很重要。在本研究中，我们旨在使用马尔可夫模型估计各阶段膀胱癌的5年患病率。这是一项模拟研究。为了估计各阶段膀胱癌的5年患病率，我们使用了诊断后5年时间范围的马尔可夫模型。我们通过文献综述模拟了膀胱癌的自然史。我们利用国内和国际出版物以及专家意见提取了生存率、特定阶段的复发率和进展率。此外，我们使用了伊朗生命表并提取了因其他死因导致的死亡率概率。2018年膀胱癌的5年患病率估计为21807例患者。非肌层浸润性膀胱癌约占所有病例的68%，其中Ta低级别阶段占42%。约32%的膀胱癌现患病例为肌层浸润性膀胱癌患者，其中约8%患有转移性肿瘤。研究人员和政策制定者可以利用本研究的结果进行经济负担分析并规划资源分配。
