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运动对疫情早期阶段的影响。

Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Data Science Nexus, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.

Department of Mathematics, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, USA.

出版信息

Bull Math Biol. 2022 Sep 23;84(11):128. doi: 10.1007/s11538-022-01077-5.

DOI:10.1007/s11538-022-01077-5
PMID:36149585
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9510491/
Abstract

The early phase of an epidemic is characterized by a small number of infected individuals, implying that stochastic effects drive the dynamics of the disease. Mathematically, we define the stochastic phase as the time during which the number of infected individuals remains small and positive. A continuous-time Markov chain model of a simple two-patch epidemic is presented. An algorithm for formalizing what is meant by small is presented, and the effect of movement on the duration of the early stochastic phase of an epidemic is studied.

摘要

传染病的早期阶段的特点是少数感染者，这意味着随机效应驱动疾病的动态。从数学上讲，我们将随机阶段定义为感染者数量保持小而正数的时间段。本文提出了一种简单两斑块传染病的连续时间马尔可夫链模型。提出了一个正式定义“小”的算法，并研究了运动对传染病早期随机阶段持续时间的影响。

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本文引用的文献

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Infect Dis Model. 2018 Mar 22;3:60-73. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2018.03.002. eCollection 2018.
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Hybrid Markov chain models of S-I-R disease dynamics.S-I-R疾病动态的混合马尔可夫链模型
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Probability of a disease outbreak in stochastic multipatch epidemic models.随机多斑块传染病模型中的疾病爆发概率。
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Math Biosci. 2013 May;243(1):99-108. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2013.02.006. Epub 2013 Mar 1.
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