The Association Between Serum Lactate Concentration, Base Deficit, and Mortality in Polytrauma Patients as a Prognostic Factor: An Observational Study.

Introduction In polytrauma patients, it is crucial to identify the severity of the injuries to ensure patient safety and survival. Polytrauma leads to hypotension and hypoperfusion, which results in an anaerobic metabolism with acidosis and a decrease in base excess. Thus, blood lactate levels above a certain threshold indicate the existence of global tissue hypoxia, which is a precursor to shock and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS). The serum lactate and base deficit (BD) levels are used in polytrauma patients as measures of damage severity and resuscitation endpoints and as a way to evaluate therapy efficacy and to predict outcomes. Thus, arterial blood gas analysis is of great value in assessing the status and prognosis of patients with polytrauma. There are few comparative studies on the predictive values of these markers in trauma patients. To determine which measure can more accurately predict the prognosis of polytrauma patients, the present study investigated the predictive values of mortality of these indicators for mortality within 48 hours of admission to the emergency room (ER) in patients with polytrauma. Methods This prospective study was designed for a single tertiary care center in northern India. We included 90 patients with polytrauma who were between the ages of 18 and 70 years, with the exception of pregnant women, who presented to the ER within six hours of injury with an injury severity score (ISS) >16, serum lactate level >2.0 mmol/L, and BD -4.0 mEq/L at the time of admission. If the patient's ISS was >16 at the time of ER presentation, arterial blood samples were drawn to determine the serum lactate and BD level at the time of admission and at 12, 24, and 48 hours intervals after ER admission. The primary outcome was the change in serum lactate and BD level in polytrauma. The secondary outcomes were an association of serum lactate and BD with mortality and the correlation between serum lactate with the BD and ISS with mortality of polytrauma patients. The timing of all outcome assessments was at 48 hours after each patient's ER admission. Results Lactate clearance from 0-12 hours (t = 2.28, p <0.05), 0-24 hours (t = 6.01, p <0.001), and 0-48 hours (t = 7.98, p <0.001) and a correction in BD from 0-24 (t = 2.68, p <0.01 ) and 0-48 hours (t = 5.46, p <0.001) were significantly higher in nonsurvivors as compared with survivors. In survivors and nonsurvivors, mean serum lactate levels (2.46 ± 1.46 versus 4.15 ± 2.99, t = 3.31, p <0.001, 95%Cl) and mean BD (-3.17 ± 2.58 versus -6.5 ± 4.91, t = 3.86, p <0.001, 95%CI) had a statistically significant difference. The serum lactate and BD levels at time of ER admission (r L0, BD0 = -0.765, p <0.01) and 48 hours after ER admission (r L48, BD 48 = -0.652, p <0.001) were highly negatively correlated. Conclusion In polytrauma patients, serum lactate and BD are simple, quick, and independent biochemical predictors of 48-hour mortality, and this single arterial blood test would thereby improve decision-making for resuscitation effectiveness. Prolonged lactate and BD normalization time were associated with higher mortality. Serum lactate and BD are negatively correlated. A higher ISS at admission was associated with a higher incidence of mortality in polytrauma patients.