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新冠疫情和政府干预对主动出行的影响。

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and government intervention on active mobility.

作者信息

Möllers Alessa, Specht Sebastian, Wessel Jan

机构信息

University of Münster, Institute of Transport Economics, Am Stadtgraben 9, 48143 Münster, Germany.

出版信息

Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2022 Nov;165:356-375. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.09.007. Epub 2022 Sep 23.

Abstract

With data from automated counting stations and controlling for weather and calendar effects, we estimate the isolated impacts of the "first wave" of Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent government intervention (contact restrictions and closures of public spaces) on walking and cycling in 10 German cities. Pedestrian traffic in pedestrian zones decreases with higher local incidence values, and with stricter government intervention. There are ambiguous effects for cycling, which decreases in cities with a higher modal share of cycling, and increases in others. Moreover, we find impact heterogeneity with respect to different weekdays and hours of the day, both for cycling and walking. Additionally, we use data on overall mobility changes, which were derived from mobile phone data, in order to estimate the modal share changes of cycling. In almost all cities, the modal share of cycling increases during the pandemic, with higher increases in non-bicycle cities and during stronger lockdown interventions.

摘要

利用自动计数站的数据,并控制天气和日历效应,我们估计了新冠疫情“第一波”以及随后政府干预措施(接触限制和公共场所关闭)对德国10个城市步行和骑行的单独影响。步行区的行人流量随着当地发病率的升高以及政府干预措施的加强而减少。骑行的影响则较为模糊,在骑行方式占比更高的城市中骑行量减少,而在其他城市中增加。此外,我们发现无论是骑行还是步行,在不同工作日和时间段都存在影响异质性。此外,我们使用了来自手机数据的总体出行变化数据,以估计骑行方式占比的变化。在几乎所有城市中,骑行方式占比在疫情期间都有所增加,在非自行车城市以及更强的封锁干预期间增加幅度更大。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2538/9500093/530df3ba9c8d/gr1_lrg.jpg

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