Saboori Behnaz, Radmehr Riza, Zhang Yu Yvette, Zekri Slim
Department of Natural Resource Economics, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman.
Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
Prog Disaster Sci. 2022 Dec;16:100252. doi: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2022.100252. Epub 2022 Sep 24.
COVID-19 has impacted the world economy and food system in many aspects. We conducted a comprehensive examination of global food security during the COVID-19 pandemic by considering the food security index and its four key pillars (affordability, availability, quality and safety, and natural resources and resilience) for 102 countries. In addition to the fixed effect panel data estimator, the Method of Moments Quantile regression is useful for disaggregating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in relation to inflation, economic growth, urbanization, and agricultural land on global food security among countries with different levels of food security. We found that COVID-19 has negatively affected food security globally, especially in countries with a low food security level. The effect of income per capita and urbanization rate on the food security index is positive and statistically significant across all quantiles. Inflation rate and agricultural land, however, adversely affect food security, and this effect is stronger for countries with lower levels of food security. The results of affordability, availability, quality, and safety, and natural resources and resilience models provide meaningful implications for governments and policymakers to build resilience in food systems and to be better prepared for future crises and disruptions in the food supply.
新冠疫情在诸多方面对世界经济和粮食系统产生了影响。我们通过考量102个国家的粮食安全指数及其四个关键支柱(可负担性、可获取性、质量与安全、自然资源与抗逆性),对新冠疫情期间的全球粮食安全进行了全面审视。除固定效应面板数据估计量外,矩分位数回归方法有助于剖析新冠疫情在通货膨胀、经济增长、城市化和农业用地方面对不同粮食安全水平国家的全球粮食安全所产生的影响。我们发现,新冠疫情对全球粮食安全产生了负面影响,尤其是在粮食安全水平较低的国家。人均收入和城市化率对粮食安全指数的影响在所有分位数上均为正向且具有统计学意义。然而,通货膨胀率和农业用地对粮食安全产生不利影响,且这种影响在粮食安全水平较低的国家更为强烈。可负担性、可获取性、质量与安全以及自然资源与抗逆性模型的结果为各国政府和政策制定者在粮食系统中建立抗逆能力以及为未来粮食供应危机和中断做好更充分准备提供了有意义的启示。