College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, P.R.China.
China Center for Food Security Studies, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, P.R.China.
PLoS One. 2022 Oct 14;17(10):e0274027. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0274027. eCollection 2022.
Large input and high loss of chemical fertilizer are the major causes of agricultural non-point source pollution in China. Employing fertilizer loss and micro-health data, this paper analyzes the effects of chemical fertilizer loss on the health of rural elderly and the medical cost in China. Results of the difference-in-differences (DID) method indicate that one kg/ha increase in fertilizer loss alters a key medical disability index (Activities of Daily Living) by 0.0147 (0.2 percent changes) and the number of diseases by 0.0057 for rural residents of 65 and older. This is equivalent to CNY 316 million (USD 45 million) at national medical cost. Furthermore, the age of onset is younger in regions with higher fertilizer loss. One kg/ha increase of fertilizer loss advances the age of onset by 0.267 year, which will cause long-term effect on public health. Our results are robust to a variety of robustness checks.
大量投入和化肥高流失是中国农业面源污染的主要原因。本文利用化肥流失和微观健康数据，分析了化肥流失对农村老年人健康和医疗费用的影响。差分法（DID）的结果表明，每公顷化肥流失增加 1 公斤，会使 65 岁及以上农村居民的一项关键医疗残疾指标（日常生活活动）变化 0.0147（0.2%的变化），患病数量增加 0.0057。这相当于全国医疗费用 3.16 亿元（4.5 亿美元）。此外，在化肥流失较高的地区，发病年龄更早。每公顷化肥流失增加 1 公斤，发病年龄提前 0.267 年，这将对公众健康产生长期影响。我们的结果在各种稳健性检验下都是稳健的。
