Jin Zebin, Jin Yixiao, Chen Zhiyun
College of Management, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, China.
Shanghai Yingcai Information Technology Ltd., Fengxian, Shanghai, China.
PeerJ Comput Sci. 2022 Sep 14;8:e1076. doi: 10.7717/peerj-cs.1076. eCollection 2022.
Financial market forecasting is an essential component of financial systems; however, predicting financial market trends is a challenging job due to noisy and non-stationary information. Deep learning is renowned for bringing out excellent abstract features from the huge volume of raw data without depending on prior knowledge, which is potentially fascinating in forecasting financial transactions. This article aims to propose a deep learning model that autonomously mines the statistical rules of data and guides the financial market transactions based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) with back-propagation neural networks (BPNN). Through the characteristic time scale of data, the intrinsic wave pattern was obtained and then decomposed. Financial market transaction data were analyzed, optimized using PSO, and predicted. Combining the nonlinear and non-stationary financial time series can improve prediction accuracy. The predictive model of deep learning, based on the analysis of the massive financial trading data, can forecast the future trend of financial market price, forming a trading signal when particular confidence is satisfied. The empirical results show that the EMD-based deep learning model has an excellent predicting performance.
金融市场预测是金融系统的重要组成部分;然而,由于信息嘈杂且非平稳,预测金融市场趋势是一项具有挑战性的工作。深度学习以能从大量原始数据中提取出出色的抽象特征而闻名,且不依赖先验知识,这在预测金融交易方面具有潜在吸引力。本文旨在提出一种深度学习模型,该模型能自主挖掘数据的统计规律,并基于经验模态分解(EMD)和反向传播神经网络(BPNN)指导金融市场交易。通过数据的特征时间尺度,获取并分解内在波动模式。对金融市场交易数据进行分析、使用粒子群优化算法(PSO)进行优化并预测。结合非线性和非平稳的金融时间序列可以提高预测精度。基于对大量金融交易数据的分析,深度学习预测模型可以预测金融市场价格的未来趋势,当满足特定置信度时形成交易信号。实证结果表明,基于EMD的深度学习模型具有出色的预测性能。