Institute of Crystallography, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche CNR, Via Salaria Km 29.300, Monterotondo Roma, 00015, Rome, Italy.
Rome International Centre Materials Science, Superstripes RICMASS, Via dei Sabelli 119A, 00185, Rome, Italy.
Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 27;12(1):18108. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-22816-7.
While understanding the time evolution of Covid-19 pandemic is needed to plan economics and tune sanitary policies, a quantitative information of the recurrent epidemic waves is elusive. This work describes a statistical physics study of the subsequent waves in the epidemic spreading of Covid-19 and disclose the frequency components of the epidemic waves pattern over two years in United States, United Kingdom and Japan. These countries have been taken as representative cases of different containment policies such as "Mitigation" (USA and UK) and "Zero Covid" (Japan) policies. The supercritical phases in spreading have been identified by intervals with RIC-index > 0. We have used the wavelet transform of infection and fatality waves to get the spectral analysis showing a dominant component around 130 days. Data of the world dynamic clearly indicates also the crossover to a different phase due to the enforcement of vaccination campaign. In Japan and United Kingdom, we observed the emergence in the infection waves of a long period component (~ 170 days) during vaccination campaign. These results indicate slowing down of the epidemic spreading dynamics due to the vaccination campaign. Finally, we find an intrinsic difference between infection and fatality waves pointing to a non-trivial variation of the lethality due to different gene variants.
尽管了解新冠疫情的时间演变对于规划经济和调整卫生政策很有必要,但反复出现的疫情浪潮的定量信息却难以捉摸。本工作通过统计物理方法研究了新冠疫情传播的后续浪潮,并揭示了美国、英国和日本两年内疫情浪潮模式的频率成分。这些国家被视为不同遏制政策的代表性案例,如“缓解”(美国和英国)和“零新冠”(日本)政策。传播的超临界阶段通过 RIC 指数>0 的区间来确定。我们使用感染和死亡浪潮的小波变换来进行频谱分析,显示出大约 130 天的主要成分。全球动态数据也清楚地表明,由于疫苗接种运动的实施,出现了向不同阶段的转变。在日本和英国,我们观察到在疫苗接种期间,感染浪潮中出现了一个长周期成分(~170 天)。这些结果表明,由于疫苗接种运动,疫情传播的动态正在放缓。最后,我们发现感染和死亡浪潮之间存在内在差异,这表明由于不同的基因变体,死亡率存在非平凡的变化。