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在扩展参数空间中的传染病传播:超临界标度律和亚临界亚稳相。

Epidemic spreading in an expanded parameter space: the supercritical scaling laws and subcritical metastable phases.

机构信息

Institute of Crystallography, CNR, via Salaria Km 29. 300, Monterotondo Stazione, Roma I-00015, Italy.

Rome International Centre Materials Science Superstripes RICMASS via dei Sabelli 119A, 00185 Rome, Italy.

出版信息

Phys Biol. 2021 Jun 21;18(4). doi: 10.1088/1478-3975/ac059d.

Abstract

While the mathematical laws of uncontrolled epidemic spreading are well known, the statistical physics of coronavirus epidemics with containment measures is currently lacking. The modelling of available data of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 over 230 days, in different countries representative of different containment policies is relevant to quantify the efficiency of these policies to face the containment of any successive wave. At this aim we have built a 3D phase diagram tracking the simultaneous evolution and the interplay of the doubling time,, and the reproductive number,measured using the methodological definition used by the Robert Koch Institute. In this expanded parameter space three different main phases,,andare identified. Moreover, we have found that in theregime with> 1 the doubling time is smaller than 40 days. In this phase we have established the power law relation betweenand (- 1)with the exponentdepending on the definition of reproductive number. In theregime where< 1 and> 100 days, we have identified arrested metastable phases whereis nearly constant.

摘要

虽然不受控制的传染病传播的数学规律是众所周知的,但目前缺乏带有遏制措施的冠状病毒传染病的统计物理学。对 2020 年新冠疫情第一波疫情的可用数据进行建模,覆盖了 230 多天,涉及到具有不同遏制政策的不同国家,这对于量化这些政策在应对任何后续疫情时的效率是相关的。为了实现这一目标,我们构建了一个 3D 相图,跟踪同时演变和相互作用的倍增时间和繁殖数,繁殖数使用罗伯特·科赫研究所使用的方法定义进行测量。在这个扩展的参数空间中,我们确定了三个不同的主要相、和。此外,我们发现,在>1 的区域中,倍增时间小于 40 天。在这个阶段,我们建立了和之间的幂律关系(-1),指数取决于繁殖数的定义。在<1 和>100 天的区域中,我们已经确定了停滞的亚稳相,其中几乎是常数。

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