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新冠疫情的周期性反复浪潮与疫苗接种运动。

Periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 epidemics and vaccination campaign.

作者信息

Campi Gaetano, Bianconi Antonio

机构信息

Institute of Crystallography, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche CNR, via Salaria Km 29.300, Monterotondo, Roma I-00015, Italy.

Rome International Centre Materials Science Superstripes RICMASS, via dei Sabelli 119A, 00185 Rome, Italy.

出版信息

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2022 Jul;160:112216. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112216. Epub 2022 May 18.

Abstract

While understanding of periodic recurrent waves of Covid-19 pidemics would aid to combat the pandemics, quantitative analysis of data over a two years period from the outbreak, is lacking. The complexity of Covid-19 recurrent waves is related with the concurrent role of i) the containment measures enforced to mitigate the epidemics spreading ii) the rate of viral gene mutations, and iii) the variable immune response of the host implemented by vaccination. This work focuses on the effect of massive vaccination and gene variants on the recurrent waves in a representative case of countries enforcing mitigation and vaccination strategy. The spreading rate is measured by the ratio between the reproductive number R(t) and the doubling time T(t) called and the daily fatalities number. The dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemics have been studied by wavelet analysis and represented by a non-linear helicoid vortex in a 3D space where both and fatalities change with time. The onset of periodic recurrent waves has been identified by the transition from convergent to divergent trajectories on the helicoid vortex. We report a main period of recurrent waves of 120 days and the elongation of this period after the vaccination campaign.

摘要

虽然了解新冠疫情的周期性复发浪潮将有助于抗击疫情,但缺乏对疫情爆发两年期间数据的定量分析。新冠疫情复发浪潮的复杂性与以下因素的共同作用有关:i)为减轻疫情传播而实施的防控措施;ii)病毒基因突变率;iii)通过疫苗接种产生的宿主可变免疫反应。这项工作聚焦于大规模疫苗接种和基因变异对实施缓解和疫苗接种策略国家的复发浪潮的影响。传播率通过繁殖数R(t)与称为倍增时间T(t)的比值以及每日死亡人数来衡量。通过小波分析研究了新冠疫情的动态,并在一个三维空间中用非线性螺旋面涡旋表示,其中 和死亡人数都随时间变化。周期性复发浪潮的开始已通过螺旋面涡旋上从收敛轨迹到发散轨迹的转变得以确定。我们报告复发浪潮的主要周期为120天,且在疫苗接种运动后该周期延长。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/93c2/9114150/dcb76b21bde4/gr1_lrg.jpg

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