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人群聚集活动中人类猴痘的传播潜力

Transmission Potential of Human Monkeypox in Mass Gatherings.

作者信息

Sypsa Vana, Mameletzis Ioannis, Tsiodras Sotirios

机构信息

Dept. of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece.

World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.

出版信息

Open Forum Infect Dis. 2022 Oct 25;9(11):ofac501. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofac501. eCollection 2022 Nov.

Abstract

Since May 2022, a large number of monkeypox cases have been reported in Europe, the United States, and other nonendemic settings. Taking into account the strict measures implemented due to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the desire of people to reclaim what is perceived as lost time, mass gatherings this summer were highly attended. Based on data for the secondary attack rate among unvaccinated contacts from endemic countries, we estimate that, on average, >1 secondary case is anticipated per infectious person if he/she has a high number of group contacts (>30) or >8 close contacts. Although the role of group contacts in mass gatherings is uncertain (less likely to involve physical contact, shorter duration), close contacts associated with the event (eg, intimate/sexual contact with other attendees) might be the amplifying event. Enforcing awareness, early recognition, and engaging affected populations in the monkeypox response are important to control transmission.

摘要

自2022年5月以来,欧洲、美国及其他非流行地区报告了大量猴痘病例。考虑到因2019冠状病毒病大流行而实施的严格措施以及人们想要弥补被视为失去的时间的愿望,今年夏天的大规模集会参与度很高。根据来自流行国家未接种疫苗的接触者的二代发病率数据,我们估计,如果感染者有大量群体接触(>30次)或>8次密切接触,平均每个感染者预计会出现>1例二代病例。尽管群体接触在大规模集会中的作用尚不确定(涉及身体接触的可能性较小,持续时间较短),但与该活动相关的密切接触(例如,与其他参与者的亲密/性接触)可能是传播加剧的因素。加强对猴痘应对的认识、早期识别并让受影响人群参与其中对于控制传播很重要。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5907/9629459/243bc08695ca/ofac501f1.jpg

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