Xu Xiaozeng, Zeng Bo
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, 400067, China.
Chongqing Key Laboratory of Social Economic and Applied Statistics, Chongqing, 400067, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(9):24441-24453. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23662-w. Epub 2022 Nov 7.
Nitrogen oxide (NOx) contains two harmful air pollutants: nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO). The reasonable prediction of China's NOx emissions is of positive significance for the government to formulate environmental protection policies. To this end, a new grey prediction model with second-order differential equation is proposed in this paper, which has more reasonable model structure and better modeling performance than the traditional grey model. Secondly, according to the data characteristics of NOx emissions of China in recent years, a smoothing algorithm and weakening buffer operator are employed to process the original data to solve the rationality of the prediction results of the new model. Thirdly, the model for predicting China's NOx emissions has been constructed by the new proposed model. The results show that the mean comprehensive error of the new model is only 0.0692%, and its performance is much better than that of several other mainstream grey prediction models. Finally, the new model is applied to China's carbon dioxide prediction in the next 5 years, and the rationality of the prediction results is analyzed. Based on the prediction results, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
氮氧化物（NOx）包含两种有害空气污染物：一氧化氮（NO）和二氧化氮（NO₂）。合理预测中国的氮氧化物排放量对政府制定环境保护政策具有积极意义。为此，本文提出了一种二阶微分方程的新型灰色预测模型，该模型结构比传统灰色模型更合理，建模性能更好。其次，根据中国近年来氮氧化物排放的数据特征，采用平滑算法和弱化缓冲算子对原始数据进行处理，以解决新模型预测结果的合理性问题。第三，利用新提出的模型构建了中国氮氧化物排放预测模型。结果表明，新模型的平均综合误差仅为0.0692%，其性能远优于其他几种主流灰色预测模型。最后，将新模型应用于中国未来5年的二氧化碳预测，并分析了预测结果的合理性。基于预测结果，提出了相关对策和建议。
