Zeng Bo, Zheng Tingting, Yang Yingjie, Wang Jianzhou
School of Management Science and Engineering, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Nov 15;899:165648. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165648. Epub 2023 Jul 21.
In the context of dual carbon targets, a reliable prediction of China's carbon dioxide emissions is of great significance to the design and formulation of emission reduction policies by Chinese government. To this end, a novel grey Verhulst model with four parameters is proposed in this paper according to the evolution law and the data characteristics of China's carbon dioxide emissions. The new model solves the defect of poor structural adaptability of the traditional grey Verhulst model by introducing a nonlinear correction term. Besides, the range of values for the order of the grey generation operator of the new model is expanded from a positive real number to any real number (r ∈ R → r ∈ R) by expanding the value range of the Gamma function. The new model is used to simulate China's carbon dioxide emissions, and its comprehensive mean relative percentage error is only 0.65 %, which is better than that of the other three grey models (2.39 %, 2.34 %, 2.35 % respectively). It shows that the proposed new model has better modeling ability. Finally, the new model is applied to predict China's carbon dioxide emissions, and the results show that it will still increase year by year, reaching 13,687 million tons by 2028 (only 11,420 million tons in 2021). Therefore, some countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to control China's carbon dioxide emissions in this paper.
在双碳目标背景下，准确预测中国二氧化碳排放量对中国政府减排政策的设计与制定具有重要意义。为此，本文根据中国二氧化碳排放的演变规律和数据特征，提出了一种新型四参数灰色Verhulst模型。新模型通过引入非线性修正项解决了传统灰色Verhulst模型结构适应性差的缺陷。此外，通过扩展伽马函数的值域，新模型灰色生成算子阶数的取值范围从正实数扩展到任意实数（r ∈ R → r ∈ R）。利用新模型对中国二氧化碳排放量进行模拟，其综合平均相对百分比误差仅为0.65%，优于其他三种灰色模型（分别为2.39%、2.34%、2.35%）。结果表明，所提新模型具有更好的建模能力。最后，将新模型应用于中国二氧化碳排放量预测，结果表明其仍将逐年增长，到2028年将达到136.87亿吨（2021年仅为114.20亿吨）。因此，本文提出了一些控制中国二氧化碳排放的对策和建议。
