Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University, 1905 University Ave, Huntsville, TX 77340, USA.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Oct 27;19(21):14019. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192114019.
There is a large literature that documents the negative health implications of exposure to air pollution, particularly PM2.5. Much of this literature, however, relies on short-term cross-sectional data, which cannot establish a true causal link between pollution and health. There are also very few studies that document long- and very long-term effects.
This study intends to estimate a causal relationship between exposure to severe air pollution and negative health outcomes that persist over long periods of time.
We use a large longitudinal dataset that spans almost 2 decades and that allows us to not only document the persistence of negative health effects, but also a pattern of recovery from a severe pollution episode. We use multivariate regression methods to estimate a causal link between air pollution and health over time. A large pollution shock that occurred in 1997 in Indonesia is used as a natural experiment to pinpoint the true causal effects of pollution exposure and not mere correlations.
Exposure to an additional unit of pollution in 1997 leads to a loss of roughly six units of lung capacity and to an increase of 4.3% in the probability of being in poor general health, as measured ten years after the pollution exposure. These effects somewhat diminish over time, to a loss of roughly three units of lung capacity and to an increase of only about 3% in the probability of being in poor general health, as measured 17 years after exposure.
Our study finds significant health consequences of exposure to air pollution, which persist over long periods of time, with some patterns of recovery. Policymakers should pay special attention to such massive sources of pollution and try to mitigate these negative health consequences.
大量文献记录了暴露于空气污染，特别是 PM2.5 对健康的负面影响。然而，这些文献大多依赖于短期的横截面数据，这些数据无法建立污染与健康之间的真正因果关系。也很少有研究记录长期和非常长期的影响。
本研究旨在估计暴露于严重空气污染与长期持续的负面健康结果之间的因果关系。
我们使用一个近 20 年的大型纵向数据集，不仅记录了负面健康影响的持续性，还记录了从严重污染事件中恢复的模式。我们使用多元回归方法来估计随时间推移的空气污染与健康之间的因果关系。1997 年印度尼西亚发生的一次大规模污染冲击被用作一个自然实验，以准确确定污染暴露的真正因果效应，而不是仅仅是相关性。
在 1997 年，每增加一个单位的污染，会导致大约 6 个单位的肺活量损失，并使 10 年后处于较差总体健康状况的概率增加 4.3%。这些影响随着时间的推移而有所减弱，到暴露后 17 年，肺活量损失约为 3 个单位，而处于较差总体健康状况的概率仅增加约 3%。
我们的研究发现，暴露于空气污染会对健康造成显著的长期影响，并存在一定的恢复模式。政策制定者应特别关注这些大规模的污染来源，并努力减轻这些负面健康后果。
