追踪 2021 年 12 月至 2022 年 1 月期间 SARS-CoV-2 奥密克戎变异株在意大利的渐进式传播。

Tracking the progressive spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Italy, December 2021 to January 2022.

机构信息

Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.

Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.

出版信息

Euro Surveill. 2022 Nov;27(45). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.45.2200125.

Abstract

BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Omicron was first detected in Italy in November 2021.AimTo comprehensively describe Omicron spread in Italy in the 2 subsequent months and its impact on the overall SARS-CoV-2 circulation at population level.MethodsWe analyse data from four genomic surveys conducted across the country between December 2021 and January 2022. Combining genomic sequencing results with epidemiological records collated by the National Integrated Surveillance System, the Omicron reproductive number and exponential growth rate are estimated, as well as SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility.ResultsOmicron became dominant in Italy less than 1 month after its first detection, representing on 3 January 76.9-80.2% of notified SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a doubling time of 2.7-3.3 days. As of 17 January 2022, Delta variant represented < 6% of cases. During the Omicron expansion in December 2021, the estimated mean net reproduction numbers respectively rose from 1.15 to a maximum of 1.83 for symptomatic cases and from 1.14 to 1.36 for hospitalised cases, while remaining relatively stable, between 0.93 and 1.21, for cases needing intensive care. Despite a reduction in relative proportion, Delta infections increased in absolute terms throughout December contributing to an increase in hospitalisations. A significant reproduction numbers' decline was found after mid-January, with average estimates dropping below 1 between 10 and 16 January 2022.ConclusionEstimates suggest a marked growth advantage of Omicron compared with Delta variant, but lower disease severity at population level possibly due to residual immunity against severe outcomes acquired from vaccination and prior infection.

摘要

背景

2021 年 11 月,首次在意大利检测到 SARS-CoV-2 关注变体奥密克戎。

目的

全面描述奥密克戎在意大利随后两个月的传播情况及其对人群中 SARS-CoV-2 整体传播的影响。

方法

我们分析了 2021 年 12 月至 2022 年 1 月期间在全国范围内进行的四项基因组调查的数据。将基因组测序结果与国家综合监测系统收集的流行病学记录相结合,估计了奥密克戎的繁殖数和指数增长率,以及 SARS-CoV-2 的传染性。

结果

奥密克戎在首次检测后不到 1 个月就在意大利占据主导地位,占 2022 年 1 月 3 日报告的 SARS-CoV-2 感染的 76.9-80.2%,倍增时间为 2.7-3.3 天。截至 2022 年 1 月 17 日,德尔塔变体的病例数占比<6%。在 2021 年 12 月奥密克戎扩张期间,症状病例的估计平均净繁殖数分别从 1.15 上升到最大值 1.83,住院病例从 1.14 上升到 1.36,而需要重症监护的病例则相对稳定,在 0.93 到 1.21 之间。尽管相对比例有所下降,但整个 12 月德尔塔感染的绝对数量都在增加,导致住院人数增加。2022 年 1 月中旬后发现繁殖数显著下降,平均估计值在 2022 年 1 月 10 日至 16 日期间降至 1 以下。

结论

估计表明,奥密克戎与德尔塔变体相比具有明显的增长优势,但人群中疾病严重程度较低,可能是由于接种疫苗和先前感染获得的针对严重结果的残余免疫力。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cbe8/9650705/08997c30c87d/2200125-f1.jpg

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索