Division of Medical Oncology and Hematology, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
Department of Biostatistics, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
Oncologist. 2023 Mar 17;28(3):214-219. doi: 10.1093/oncolo/oyac235.
BACKGROUND: Prognostic scores that can identify patients at risk for early death are needed to aid treatment decision-making and patient selection for clinical trials. We compared the accuracy of four scores to predict early death (within 90 days) and overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic gastric and esophageal (GE) cancer. METHODS: Advanced GE cancer patients receiving first-line systemic therapy were included. Prognostic risks were calculated using: Royal Marsden Hospital (RMH), MD Anderson Cancer Centre (MDACC), Gustave Roussy Immune (GRIm-Score), and MD Anderson Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor (MDA-ICI) scores. Overall survival (OS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze associations between prognostic scores and OS. The predictive discrimination was estimated using Harrell's c-index. Predictive ability for early death was measured using time-dependent AUCs. RESULTS: In total, 451 patients with metastatic GE cancer were included. High risk patients had shorter OS for all scores (RMH high- vs. low-risk median OS 7.9 vs. 12.2 months, P < .001; MDACC 6.8 vs. 11.9 months P < .001; GRIm-Score 5.3 vs. 13 months, P < .001; MDA-ICI 8.2 vs. 12.2 months, P < .001). On multivariable analysis, each prognostic score was significantly associated with OS. The GRIm-Score had the highest predictive discrimination and predictive ability for early death. CONCLUSIONS: The GRIm-Score had the highest accuracy in predicting early death and OS. Clinicians may use this score to identify patients at higher risk of early death to guide treatment decisions including clinical trial enrolment. This score could also be used as a stratification factor in future clinical trial designs.
背景:需要能够识别早期死亡风险患者的预后评分,以帮助治疗决策和临床试验患者选择。我们比较了四种评分在预测转移性胃食管(GE)癌患者早期死亡(90 天内)和总生存(OS)方面的准确性。
方法:纳入接受一线系统治疗的晚期 GE 癌症患者。使用皇家马斯登医院(RMH)、MD 安德森癌症中心(MDACC)、古斯塔夫·鲁西免疫(GRIm-Score)和 MD 安德森免疫检查点抑制剂(MDA-ICI)评分计算预后风险。使用 Kaplan-Meier 法估计总生存(OS)。使用 Cox 比例风险模型分析预后评分与 OS 之间的关联。使用 Harrell's c 指数评估预测区分度。使用时间依赖性 AUC 评估早期死亡的预测能力。
结果:共纳入 451 例转移性 GE 癌症患者。高风险患者的所有评分 OS 均较短(RMH 高风险与低风险中位 OS 分别为 7.9 与 12.2 个月,P<0.001;MDACC 分别为 6.8 与 11.9 个月,P<0.001;GRIm-Score 分别为 5.3 与 13 个月,P<0.001;MDA-ICI 分别为 8.2 与 12.2 个月,P<0.001)。多变量分析显示,每个预后评分与 OS 均显著相关。GRIm-Score 对早期死亡和 OS 的预测准确性最高。
结论:GRIm-Score 在预测早期死亡和 OS 方面具有最高的准确性。临床医生可以使用该评分识别早期死亡风险较高的患者,以指导治疗决策,包括临床试验入组。该评分也可作为未来临床试验设计的分层因素。
Gastrointest Oncol (Phila). 2024-10-30