Department of Ecology, Charles University, Viničná 7, 12844, Prague, Czech Republic.
Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Květná 8, 60365, Brno, Czech Republic.
Sci Rep. 2022 Nov 18;12(1):19830. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-24141-5.
Understanding how weather conditions affect animal populations is essential to foresee population changes in times of global climate shifts. However, assessing year-round weather impacts on demographic parameters is hampered in migratory animals due to often unknown occurrence in space and time. We addressed this by coupling tracking and weather data to explain extensive variation in apparent survival across 19 years in a northern European population of little ringed plovers (Charadrius dubius). Over 90% (n = 21) of tracked individuals followed migration routes along the Indo-European flyway to south India. Building on capture-recapture histories of nearly 1400 individuals, we found that between-year variation in precipitation during post-breeding staging in northern South Asia explained 47% of variation in apparent adult survival. Overall, the intensity of the monsoon in South Asia explained 31-33% of variability in apparent survival. In contrast, weather conditions in breeding, final non-breeding and pre-breeding quarters appeared less important in this species. The integration of multi-source data seems essential for identifying key regions and periods limiting population growth, for forecasting future changes and targeting conservation efforts.
了解天气条件如何影响动物种群对于预测全球气候变化时期的种群变化至关重要。然而，由于迁徙动物在空间和时间上的发生往往未知，因此评估全年的天气对人口统计参数的影响受到阻碍。我们通过将跟踪和天气数据相结合，来解释在北欧小环颈鸻（Charadrius dubius）种群中 19 年的明显存活率的广泛变化，从而解决了这一问题。超过 90%（n=21）的跟踪个体遵循沿印度-欧洲迁徙路线前往印度南部。基于近 1400 个人的捕获-再捕获历史，我们发现，在南亚北部繁殖后阶段的降水年际变化解释了明显成体存活率变化的 47%。总的来说，南亚季风的强度解释了明显存活率变化的 31-33%。相比之下，繁殖、最终非繁殖和繁殖前阶段的天气条件在该物种中似乎不太重要。多源数据的整合对于确定限制种群增长的关键地区和时期、预测未来变化和有针对性地开展保护工作至关重要。
