Department of Migration and Immuno-ecology, Max-Planck-Institute for Ornithology, Radolfzell, Germany.
PLoS One. 2013 Apr 8;8(4):e59110. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0059110. Print 2013.
Weather affects the demography of animals and thus climate change will cause local changes in demographic rates. In birds numerous studies have correlated demographic factors with weather but few of those examined variation in the impacts of weather in different seasons and, in the case of migrants, in different regions. Using capture-recapture models we correlated weather with apparent survival of seven passerine bird species with different migration strategies to assess the importance of selected facets of weather throughout the year on apparent survival. Contrary to our expectations weather experienced during the breeding season did not affect apparent survival of the target species. However, measures for winter severity were associated with apparent survival of a resident species, two short-distance/partial migrants and a long-distance migrant. Apparent survival of two short distance migrants as well as two long-distance migrants was further correlated with conditions experienced during the non-breeding season in Spain. Conditions in Africa had statistically significant but relatively minor effects on the apparent survival of the two long-distance migrants but also of a presumably short-distance migrant and a short-distance/partial migrant. In general several weather effects independently explained similar amounts of variation in apparent survival for the majority of species and single factors explained only relatively low amounts of temporal variation of apparent survival. Although the directions of the effects on apparent survival mostly met our expectations and there are clear predictions for effects of future climate we caution against simple extrapolations of present conditions to predict future population dynamics. Not only did weather explains limited amounts of variation in apparent survival, but future demographics will likely be affected by changing interspecific interactions, opposing effects of weather in different seasons, and the potential for phenotypic and microevolutionary adaptations.
天气会影响动物的种群动态，因此气候变化将导致局部的人口统计变化。在鸟类中，许多研究已经将人口统计因素与天气相关联，但很少有研究考察不同季节和迁徙鸟类不同地区天气影响的变化。使用捕获-再捕获模型，我们将天气与七种具有不同迁徙策略的雀形目鸟类的明显存活率相关联，以评估全年选择的天气因素对明显存活率的重要性。与我们的预期相反，繁殖季节的天气并没有影响目标物种的明显存活率。然而，冬季严重程度的措施与一种留鸟、两种短距离/部分迁徙鸟类和一种长距离迁徙鸟类的明显存活率相关。两种短距离迁徙鸟类以及两种长距离迁徙鸟类的明显存活率还与西班牙非繁殖季节的条件相关。非洲的条件对两种长距离迁徙鸟类以及一种可能的短距离迁徙鸟类和短距离/部分迁徙鸟类的明显存活率有统计学上显著但相对较小的影响。总的来说，对于大多数物种，几个天气因素独立地解释了明显存活率变化的相似数量，而单个因素只解释了明显存活率的相对较低的时间变化。尽管对明显存活率的影响方向大多符合我们的预期，并且对未来气候的影响有明确的预测，但我们警告不要简单地将当前条件外推以预测未来的种群动态。天气不仅解释了明显存活率变化的有限数量，而且未来的人口统计数据可能会受到种间相互作用变化、不同季节天气影响的对立作用以及表型和微观进化适应的潜在影响。
