Saito Ryuichi, Haruyama Shinichiro
Graduate School of System Design and Management, Keio University, 4-1-1, Hiyoshi, Kohoku Ward, Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture 223-0061 Japan.
J Comput Soc Sci. 2023;6(1):359-388. doi: 10.1007/s42001-022-00186-4. Epub 2022 Nov 12.
Since early 2020, the global coronavirus pandemic has strained economic activities and traditional lifestyles. For such emergencies, our paper proposes a social sentiment estimation model that changes in response to infection conditions and state government orders. By designing mediation keywords that do not directly evoke coronavirus, it is possible to observe sentiment waveforms that vary as confirmed cases increase or decrease and as behavioral restrictions are ordered or lifted over a long period. The model demonstrates guaranteed performance with transformer-based neural network models and has been validated in New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago, given that coronavirus infections explode in overcrowded cities. The time-series of the extracted social sentiment reflected the infection conditions of each city during the 2-year period from pre-pandemic to the new normal and shows a concurrency of waveforms common to the three cities. The methods of this paper could be applied not only to analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic but also to analyses of a wide range of emergencies and they could be a policy support tool that complements traditional surveys in the future.
自2020年初以来,全球冠状病毒大流行给经济活动和传统生活方式带来了压力。针对此类紧急情况,我们的论文提出了一种社会情绪估计模型,该模型会根据感染情况和州政府命令做出变化。通过设计不直接唤起冠状病毒的中介关键词,可以观察到随着确诊病例的增加或减少以及行为限制的下达或解除,情绪波形在很长一段时间内的变化情况。该模型在基于Transformer的神经网络模型中展现出了有保障的性能,并且鉴于冠状病毒感染在人口密集城市激增,已在纽约市、洛杉矶和芝加哥得到验证。提取的社会情绪时间序列反映了从疫情前到新常态的两年期间每个城市的感染情况,并显示出三个城市共有的波形并发情况。本文的方法不仅可以应用于对新冠疫情的分析,还可以应用于广泛的紧急情况分析,并且它们可能成为未来补充传统调查的政策支持工具。